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Another warm, dry day is ahead for Alabama. We do note the low level easterly flow, which means temperatures today should be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, and some clouds are possible early this morning for East Alabama. But, generally speaking, we can expect a good supply of sunshine today with dry air covering the state.
Pretty much the same story tomorrow, but a strengthening short wave over the Great Lakes will push an active cold front down our way by mid-week, and we will highlight a good chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. The NAM is printing 0.45″ with this system, and we do expect an average of around one-half inch. But, we have to remember we are getting into the time of the year when rainfall distribution is very uneven; some spots will get more, others will get less. For now it looks like the main window for showers and storms will come from about 3:00 until 9:00 p.m. Wednesday.
A COOL CHANGE: A refreshingly cool airmass will move into the state Thursday and Friday; highs will drop into the 70s, and by early Friday morning some spots will enjoy temperatures in the upper 40s. Not bad for mid-May in Alabama. The cP airmass (continental Polar) will hang around for the weekend, meaning sunny days and clear nights Saturday and Sunday. For the weekend we expect highs in the low 80s and lows in the comfortable 50s.
LONG RANGE: The 00Z GFS suggests another cold front in the May 23-24 time frame with a chance of showers and storms, and another one around May 29. We also note around May 29 the GFS shows a tropical system in the Yucatan channel headed for the Gulf of Mexico. This, of course, is pure voodoo, but tis the season for watching the tropics, you know.
WEATHER BRAINS: We will be recoding a new Weather Brains show tonight; it will be posted late tonight or early tomorrow on the web and on iTunes. Of course, you can listen to previous episodes anytime.
WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page.
I will be speaking to the kids at Cherokee Bend Elementary School in Mountain Brook this morning; then it is back to the office where I will have the Weather Xtreme video ready by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
