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Shivery is the only way to describe the chill this morning. Okay, downright cold would describe it too. Looks like the record low for April 7 of 27 set in 1950 will hold, but the record for tomorrow morning of 29 set in 1990 is likely to be eclipsed – shattered might be a better description.
And while we expect to see a generous amount of sunshine today, we’re still experiencing cold air advection. The result will be a rather chilly day with a strong northwest wind and high temperatures struggling to reach the upper 40s. Tomorrow morning is expected to be the coldest of this Arctic blast, however, there are a bunch of clouds poised to our west, and should those clouds make it here, they could create a blanket that might hold temperatures up. Latest model guidance doesn’t think so with MOS numbers coming in around 20. I still think lower and mid 20s is what we’ll see.
A warming trend sets in on Monday, though it will be another chilly start. Afternoon highs should climb toward the 60-degree mark.
The overall pattern is going to be very busy. SPC has outlooked much of the southern and central Mississippi River Valley and the Southeast US for a risk of severe weather on days 4 through 8. This outlook actually covers two storm systems – the first one in the April 10th and 11th time frame and a second system in the April 13th and 14th time frame. It appears that the better chances for severe weather in Central Alabama will come with the second system which appears stronger with better conditions supportive of severe weather.
Tuesday a low gets cranked up in western Oklahoma, and it should bring decent chances for rain to Central Alabama primarily on Wednesday. We could see strong to severe storms with the mid-week system, too, but the rain will be welcome with a deficit this year of nearly 10 inches. The rain moves out rather quickly with a large but not quite as cold high settling into the Southeast on Thursday.
But no rest for meteorologists with a new storm system really cranking up east of Denver on Friday with a central pressure of 994 millibars. The low moves into Iowa by Saturday with a very favorable upper jet pattern over the Lower Mississippi River Valley that could bring a significant round of severe weather to the Southeast. We’ll have to be watching this one to see how it evolves.
In the longer range, the pattern flattens a bit after the Saturday storms but the GFS continues to show a very active pattern with a steady stream of weather systems for the next couple of weeks.
Thanks so much for checking in here. I hope you all have a great weekend. Be sure to bundle up if you are headed out for sunrise service tomorrow morning. And try to remember this cold snap – it might make the summer heat seem more bearable (or NOT)!!
-Brian-
