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Nice wedge effect today… scroll down and read J.B.’s morning post. At 3:00 p.m. our SKYCAM site atop Mt. Cheaha was at only 61 degrees, while the SKYCAM site in downtown Birmingham was showing 66. Nobody really seems to be complaining about the cooler weather. The clouds are beginning to thin out, and we do not expect any rain tonight.
TO THE WEST: Our major storm system over the Rockies is finally beginning to move east. SPC has defined a moderate risk over parts of Central Texas this afternoon, where tornado watches are in effect. Looks like more flash flood warnings are coming out of North-Central Texas as opposed to severe thunderstorm warnings. Our friend Kevin Selle in Dallas is reporting many water rescues in a number of counties across North Texas. And, so far no tornado warnings from the Fort Worth NWS office this afternoon.
The showers and storms will spread eastward tomorrow, with the action reaching Mississippi late in the day, or tomorrow night. It still looks like the best chance of rain for Alabama will come on Sunday. We are still projecting rain amounts of 1/2 inch on Sunday for most of the state, but a few spots might see a little more. With our rainfall deficit for the year now up to nine inches, we will take all we can get. The risk of severe weather continues to look relatively small Sunday as the better dynamics will be well to the north, and instability will be rather limited.
NEXT WEEK: Looks like the northern half of the state will be dry Monday with the front stalling somewhere around U.S. 80; any showers or storms Monday should come over the southern half of the state. But, the old boundary moves slowly northward on Tuesday, and we will bring back the chance of showers statewide. Then, a fairly strong cold front will bring showers and storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This system will bring the potential for 1/2 to 1 inch of rain.
Look for much cooler weather at the end of next week; it still looks like we might have some frost to deal with during the early morning hours sometime in the April 6-8 time frame.
LONG RANGE: Very changeable weather is expected through April… the 12Z GFS is advertising a big rain event now on April 9, followed by a big dump of cold, Arctic air in the April 11-12 time frame. Thickness values on this run even hint at a freeze for North Alabama. Of course, this is all voodoo, but is sure is possible with our upper ridge long gone.
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Brian Peters is on vacation this weekend… he is out camping somewhere deep in the woods of Central Alabama where there is no Internet connectivity… so most likely the next Weather Xtreme video will be the one I post Monday morning by 7:00 a.m. Of course, we will have notes on the blog through the weekend. As always, thanks for reading and watching… enjoy the weekend!
