Buffalo’s earliest lake effect snowstorm on record dumped 8.3 inches of snow on the city on October 12, 2006, setting a new record for the most snow on any October day. The record didn’t last long, as 10.9 inches fell on the 13th, breaking the new record. A total of 22.6 inches fell during the storm, the largest October snowstorm in the city’s history.
With trees still in full leaf, the heavy, wet snow brought down tree limbs and power lines. Ninety percent of the city’s trees suffered damage in the storm, which was nicknamed “Arborgeddon” by local residents. Electricity was out to over 300,000 people.
The event was not forecast well. Forecasters knew that there would be a lake effect event as much as a week out, but no one could expect what happened. By early afternoon on the 12th, they were calling for snowfall, which was historically early, but they were still only predicting 1-3 inches with some isolated six inch amounts.
Since major lake effect events are rare when the lake water is still warm in October, forecasters did not believe a large event could occur. There had only been four events of two or more inches of snow in any
October in the weather history of the city.
Forecasters knew the lake temperature was 3 degrees above normal. This combined with an extremely cold airmass to setup perfect conditions for an extreme event. A warm lake and cold air temperatures allowed for efficient evaporation which quickly condensed into clouds and snow. A long fetch of the cold air across the warm lake helped. The difference between the water temp and the 850 mb temperature was an amazing 75F. Clouds were able to grow to heights of 25,000 feet, becoming very prolific snow producer. A state of emergency was declared in Buffalo the following morning.
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