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SOME BADLY NEEDED RAIN: We will highlight a good chance of developing showers and thunderstorms across Alabama today as moisture moves northward, and an upper trough approaches from the west. The rain will be more widespread tonight and tomorrow morning as the dynamics improve.
HOW MUCH? The QPF chart from HPC still suggests two inches of rain for the I-20 corridor (Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston). The NAM output supports this idea; it is printing 2.32″ of rain for Birmingham during the next 36 hours. The GFS is drier with 1.11″, and I think that is closer to reality. But, a good one inch rain is very beneficial; if we get that much, it will be our biggest rain event since August 26 when 1.13″ was measured at the Birmingham Airport.
PRE-DAWN SEVERE STORM IN EAST MISSISSIPPI: This storm report just came in from the NWS in Jackson on our instant message conference: JAN: Columbus [Lowndes Co, MS] emergency mngr reports TSTM WND DMG at 03:10 AM CDT — trees fell on 4 houses and a shell gas station. an apartment complex was evacuated after a fallen tree ruptured the gas line. power outages were reported around the city of Columbus.
SEVERE WEATHER HERE? Unlikely, but not totally out of the question. SPC does not have any formal risk defined for Alabama, with only low probabilities. I think this is the right idea since instability values will be rather limited. There is some degree of helicity, however, so we will need to keep an eye on radar just in case. When it comes to thunderstorms, expect the unexpected, you know…
The rain will end from west to east tomorrow afternoon as drier air moves into the state.
END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND: We are still forecasting dry weather Thursday through Sunday; the high Thursday will be in the upper 70s, with low 80s Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. We should be in the upper 50s early Thursday and Friday morning, with lows in the low 60s over the weekend. These values are pretty close to average values for early October in Alabama. Once again, great weather for football or anything else outdoors.
NEXT WEEK: As we peek into the land of voodoo, the GFS has been all over the board next week. The 00Z run keeps short wave energy way to the north, with only a weakening front moving through here Tuesday night with only a limited amount of rain. Not much confidence in a specific solution.
MORE VOODOO: We also note the GFS is trying to develop a tropical system in the western Caribbean next week, moving it northward in the general direction of South Florida. Most of us do expect one more uptick in tropical activity, so we will keep an eye on that as well.
MARCO (POLO): Tropical Storm Marco is moving into the Mexico coast this morning… that is one of the shortest lived tropical systems of the season. Elsewhere, the Atlantic basin for now is quiet.
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I am headed north to Cullman this morning to speak to the kids at Cullman East Elementary… I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 or so this afternoon. J.B. will keep you updated on the progress of the rain event… enjoy the day.
