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The cold front that moved through Central Alabama yesterday has moved into the Gulf and the Southeast Atlantic and drier and cooler air has replaced the stormy conditions of early Friday. 79 was the high in Birmingham yesterday compared to the typical highs for early June of 85. In fact, the low this morning in Birmingham is the coolest we’ve seen since May 10th. Nice!!
So today will be just beautiful with plenty of sunshine and highs climbing to about 81 for a high. Sunday we stick with the sunshine, but we also warm up considerably with highs back to the upper 80s.
In the upper atmosphere, we’ve dealing with a northwesterly flow which can often be tricky. Small disturbances in the flow will be moving across the Southeast Monday and Tuesday which will provide us with some thunderstorm chances. One thing we will need to watch for will be the development of large thunderstorm complexes to the northwest which move into our area. Any model has difficulty identifying the small scale features. A strong short wave coming out of central Canada dives into the trough on Tuesday which will help to create a frontal boundary that should sag into the area. This will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms mainly on Tuesday.
At this point in time, there is divergence in the model solutions. Up to Wednesday, the GFS and the ECMWF are in good agreement. The ECMWF keeps us much wetter than the GFS for the end of the week. For the moment, the drier GFS solution seems to be the better one, though it is quite possible we’ll see adjustments to the forecast as we get closer to the end of the upcoming week. The strong northwesterly flow aloft on the GFS should push the front through the area allowing us to dry out for the end of the week. The northwesterly flow aloft should also keep temperatures in check as the large upper ridge stays to our west.
Rainfall coming mainly in the Monday through early Wednesday time frame could bring around half an inch to many locations, though the nature of showers means that not everyone will get wet.
Long range computer projections have changed a bit with the big upper ridge holding to our west. This will allow us to warm up somewhat without getting into extreme heat. That’s certainly the kind of pattern I’d like to see as we head into the first portion of summer.
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Working as a volunteer for the Alabama State Parks at Cheaha State Park. Worked on a painting project yesterday and enjoyed feeling the air dry out during the afternoon as the sun came out. I’ve been asked to staff the Will Farr Museum here today and tomorrow, so I will be greeting visitors there. Enjoy the beautiful weather and Godspeed.
-Brian-
