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RIGHT NOW: As expected, not much happening on the radar at this point; just a few widely scattered showers and storms over the northern half of Alabama. Any showers tonight will stay widely separated.
TOMORROW AND THE REST OF THE WEEK: Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see HPC is still maintaining a very aggressive rain forecast for Alabama through Saturday morning; amounts range from 5 inches over the northwest corner of the state to 1 inch for Southeast Alabama. The bulls eye is near Texarkana, Arkansas, where 9.7 inches of rain is predicted. We all know that QPF forecasts in summer are very difficult due to the convective nature of the precipitation, but big summer downpours can sure produce lots of rain in a short amount of time.
A broad upper trough will remain over the eastern half of the nation, and a series of waves will move through the trough, providing upward air motion and several healthy rounds of storms through Friday. The 12Z NAM is printing only 0.68″ through 84 hours, while the GFS much wetter with 1.81″, and probably closer to the truth. But, these models don’t handle summer convection very well, in most cases.
Bottom line is that we will forecast a good chance of occasional showers and storms through Friday, with afternoon highs mostly in the mid 80s due to the clouds and showers.
WEEKEND PEEK: While the upper ridge tries to rebuild across the southern U.S., there is a well defined weakness around here, which means we will continue to deal with at least scattered showers and storms on Saturday and Sunday. There should be a few decent intervals of sunshine, with highs generally between 86 and 90.
TROPICS: Very dry air covers much of the tropical Atlantic basin, and we have another very quiet day with no sign of any tropical storm formation through mid-week.
AT THE BEACH: The weather will be unsettled along the Gulf Coast through Friday, with about 2 to 4 hours of sun daily with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be mostly in the mid 80s along the immediate coast, and closer to 90 inland.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The 12Z GFS keeps a mean upper trough over the eastern U.S. through mid-August, and that persistence forecast usually is the best. This means temperatures should stay below average, with rain above average, for the next two weeks. That is quite a gift for what is usually the hottest time of the year here in Alabama.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record a new show tonight; it will be posted by 10:30.
FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….
| James Spann | Jason Simpson | Ashley Brand |
| J. B. Elliott | Bill Murray | Brian Peters |
| Dr. Tim Coleman | E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings) |
Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
