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ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE DAYS AHEAD: Let me warn you up front, when our weather gets active in the cold season, the trolls, know-it-alls, and haters tend to come our from under their rocks. We don’t mind the negative comments, but profanity and personal attacks are now allowed here. Now…
RIGHT NOW: Getting colder in the wake of the morning rain. Temperatures have dropped into the low to mid 40s over Northwest Alabama, where the sky is clearing. All of Alabama will enjoy a clearing trend during the next few hours, but tonight will be much colder with a low in the low to mid 30s. A few Skywatcher rain reports from this morning:
Inverness 0.70″
Springville 0.38″
Bear Creek 0.79″
Centre 0.34″
TOMORROW: We will begin the day tomorrow with a bright sunny sky, but clouds will begin to return tomorrow afternoon ahead of the Southwest U.S. upper low that will open up as a wave and move east. The high tomorrow should be close to 60 degrees.
BIG SOAKING FOR MID-WEEK: Rain will begin tomorrow night, and becoming widespread and heavy at times from about midnight tomorrow night through noon on Wednesday. The NAM has backed off a bit on the projected rain, now printing 1.53″ during this 12 hour period. There is also come conflict within the models on the placement of the surface low; the GFS has the low near Scottsboro at midday Wednesday, while the NAM position is closer to Memphis. We figure the low will be close to Huntsville, which should keep the primary risk of severe weather in Alabama over the southern and eastern counties, mainly south of a line from Mobile to Montgomery to Lafayette. Storms down in Southeast Alabama could produce some hail, high winds, and even a few isolated tornadoes. For now the air seems too stable over North Alabama for any severe weather Wednesday, but we will keep an eye on the developing surface low to see where it winds up.
While the rain should be heavy at times, we don’t expect enough rain for serious flooding problems since the ground is not saturated. The rain will taper off Wednesday afternoon as the surface low moves to the northeast.
COLD AIR BLAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The coldest air so far this season rolls into Alabama Thursday. Clouds will linger at least part of the day, and we will struggle to get out of the mid 40s. Friday will be even colder with a high in the 40 to 45 degree range. The 12Z GFS has introduced the idea of a strong vorticity maximum rotating through the base of the long wave upper trough over the Central U.S., which in turns spins up a wave on the Arctic front down in the Gulf of Mexico. This feature has the potential to squeeze out a few snow flurries over Alabama Friday afternoon or Friday night, but moisture will be very limited and for now it doesn’t seem to be a big deal. Of course, we will monitor this closely in coming days, but the cold is the big story, not the risk of flurries. See the Weather Xtreme video for more details.
OUR WEEKEND: Looks like the coldest morning will come early Saturday with everybody will drop into the 20s. Sunday morning could be just a cold, and on one or both mornings the coldest valleys will have the potential to get into the upper teens for the first time this season. The weekend will be dry with a high in the upper 40s on Saturday, followed by mid 50s on Sunday.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Scroll down for Dr. Coleman’s excellent post on the potential cold pattern developing for North America in coming weeks. For Alabama next week, looks like we will begin the week with a rain event on Monday, followed by another rain opportunity the following weekend. Remember, this is an active pattern with an El Nino enhanced southern stream and a Polar Jet involved, so trying to be specific out in voodoo land, as usual, is almost impossible.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. WEATHERBRAINS: Busy show tonight, with guest WeatherBrain Roger Hill, one of America’s premiere stormchasers. Kevin Selle will interview Dr. Kris Wilson of t he University of Texas about the AMS Weathercasters survey on climate change. Next week, legendary Oklahoma City television meteorologist Gary England will join the show. We will have this week’s new episode posted by 11:00 p.m. or so.
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I had a great time today seeing all of the kids at Stowers Hill Intermediate School in Attalla; be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
