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We use IM (instant messaging) technology heavily in our office; at any one time I usually have five IM conferences in tabs on my program on this MacBook Pro. Got this report moments ago from our Skywatcher conference:
“High wind and heavy rain right now in north Hale County James.
And, some quick thoughts from the NWS Birmingham on their IM conference:
“pws today are well over 2 inches. rainfall rates of 3+ inches per hour not uncommon.
storm motion is only around 5 kts so some localized flooding not out of the question”
So, needless to say we will be watching the radar closely this afternoon keeping up with the big storms that have fired up on this summer afternoon. The NWS has issued a number of “significant weather alerts” for storms over West Alabama, and just about any community will have a decent chance of dealing with a heavy downpour between now and 10:00 tonight. Like the NWS mentions, some local flooding issues are possible due to the slow movement of the storms, and all of them will contain very frequent and deadly lightning. There is also the potential today for wet microbursts, local areas of damaging straight line winds.
LOOKING AHEAD: I really don’t think the weather changes all that much through Thursday. Very moist air (PW values will remain at or over two inches) stays in place, and with little cap afternoon and evening showers and storms will form easily. We might even see a few stray late night or morning showers near mesoscale boundaries. Afternoon highs will be generally in the 89 to 92 degree range.
LABOR DAY WEEKEND: A nice upper trough will pass well to the north of Alabama, and will send a surface boundary down this way over the weekend. The 12Z run of the GFS hints the boundary will hang up north of Alabama, which I believe is the correct solution. So, some pretty routine weather seems likely for the holiday weekend. Partly sunny each day with scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. The daily high will be around 90 degrees Saturday through Monday.
LONG RANGE: A very deep trough shows up around September 9, but the core of the trough passes north of Alabama and the 12Z run of the GFS keeps the fresh, cool Canadian air north of here through September 12. We will be dealing with the chance of afternoon and evening showers and storms on an almost daily basis.
TROPICS: A tropical wave is moving through the central Caribbean with little sign of organization, and the African wave train is running, but no sign of development. The SSTs out in the East Atlantic seem cooler than normal, which might keep things quiet out there, at least for the short term. But, the water is very warm across the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING just issued for Greene and Sumter Counties… better get to the radar!
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