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A VISIT FROM CLAUDETTE: Claudette moved into the Florida panhandle as a relatively weak tropical storm last night, and the remnant low will move through South and West Alabama today. As expected, the bulk of the rain is east of the circulation center, and a pretty decent part of Alabama will be on that wet east side of the system, so we will forecast periods of rain statewide today, with winds in the 10 to 20 mph range.
The NAM is printing only 0.28″ of rain for the next 84 hours, while the GFS is wetter with 0.58″. These models often underestimate the amount of rain with a tropical system, but based on radar trends, it seems like we need to forecast rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch statewide with Claudette today. Needless to say, that won’t produce any flooding problems.
TORNADOES? The tornado threat seems minimal at this time with weak wind fields and limited instability. SPC has very low end tornado probabilities in place for Central Alabama. Of course, with tropical systems you need to expect the unexpected, so we will keep an eye on the radar as the day rolls along.
The weather will stay rather showery tonight and tomorrow as deep moisture lingers, then on Wednesday and Thursday we get back into the routine summer pattern with partly sunny days and the risk of “scattered, afternoon and evening showers and storms.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The GFS shows a strong upper trough forming over the eastern third of the nation late in the week, which will drive a cold front into the Deep South. This should bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday, followed by a nice shot of dry air for the weekend. At this moment Saturday and Sunday look mostly sunny with lower humidity, cooler nights, and daytime highs in the 88 to 91 degree range.
ANA AND BILL: The upper trough mentioned above should force Hurricane Bill northward with no U.S. landfall. Ana is the big question mark… lots of things working against her, including interaction with the mountainous island of Hispaniola. There is a very real chance Ana will dissipate within the next 24 hours. But, if she can survive, the circulation should be in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico later this week. Some of the intensity models actually bring Ana up to hurricane strength in the eastern Gulf Friday. Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics and details on tropical activity in the Atlantic basin.
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We will have updates throughout the day as Claudette moves northward through Alabama… stay tuned…
