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RIGHT NOW: Patches of light rain linger over Alabama this afternoon, but the most widespread rain has moved on to the east. Rain will end across the state tonight, and tomorrow will be a warmer day with a good supply of sunshine. Still a huge contrast between the GFS with a high of 77 and the NAM with a high of 67. We figure most places will wind up in the low 70s tomorrow; it should be a nice fall day.
MODEL MADNESS: No doubt we will deal with rain and storms at the end of the week, but it is a difficult forecast due to model output inconsistency. Most of Thursday will be dry, although a few showers could show up late in the day. Then, on Friday, we will mention a chance of scattered showers and storms with a gusty south wind developing ahead of the major upper trough moving out of the western U.S.
Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the 12Z GFS has slowed down our end of the week system in a big way, and really holds off the main band of showers and storms until Saturday. This, of course, is in direct conflict with our ongoing forecast, with calls for dry and pleasant weather Saturday. If the 18Z and 00Z runs keep up this slower trend, needless to say we will have to make wholesale changes in the forecast for Saturday. Stay tuned…
The possibility of severe weather in Alabama will depend on the timing; the latest GFS does hint at a chance of strong to severe storms on Saturday, but with such model madness there is very little confidence in a severe weather outlook in the Friday/Saturday time frame right now.
Sunday still looks like a very nice day with ample sunshine and a high in the 70s.
NEXT WEEK: Monday will remain dry and mild, but a strong upper trough will pass through Tuesday with some risk of a shower, followed by noticeably cooler air. We will probably have a hard time getting out of the 50s Tuesday with a stiff north breeze. We won’t even try to be specific beyond that with this difficult pattern continuing.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up on Saturday November 14 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years). We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.
I had a great time today at Cullman East Elementary seeing the 5th and 6th graders… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
