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No real change in our forecast thinking… a good wet-down is ahead for Alabama tonight and tomorrow as moisture from Humberto combines with an approaching Polar front coming down from the north.
The 12Z NAM is printing 1.18″ for Birmingham with this event, while the GFS is now wetter with 1.46″. As we pointed out this morning, models often do not especially understand rain potential with tropical systems like this, especially with the kind of nocturnal rain they can be generated. We will project rain amounts from one to three inches through tomorrow night for all of North and Central Alabama. A few spots might see over three inches where the heavier rain bands set up late tonight and into the day tomorrow.
We don’t expect major flash flooding problems, and severe weather potential is very limited with the deep tropical moisture (and the lack of dry air in the mid levels).
There is a bit of model madness in model timing; the NAM is trying to hold rain in here all the way through Saturday morning, but the GFS moves the rain out of here tomorrow night. Based on satellite images of Humberto this afternoon and the forward motion we are seeing, you have to believe the GFS has a better handle on the situation.
OUR WEEKEND: We might begin the day Saturday with some leftover clouds, but the sky should clear quickly, with lots of sunshine by afternoon. We project a high only in the low 80s, and by Sunday morning the temperature should visit the 50s; it looks like our coolest morning since May 22.
The dry air should stay in place for the first half of next week with a gradual day to day warming process.
TD8: This thing continue to move slowly out in the Atlantic, and it should be somewhere just north of the Leeward Islands by early next week as Tropical Storm Ingrid. The jury is still out on the final destination… it will have the option of recurving into the open Atlantic, but bending back to the west, in the general direction of the South Atlantic coast of the U.S.
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I sure enjoyed seeing all of my friends out at Glenwood today… they were a great audience. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow… and stay tuned to the blog for the latest on Humberto’s progress through the Deep South.
