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Sure looks like Alabama has a decent chance at getting some beneficial rain during the next three days. We will be in a squeeze play with an upper air low to the west, and a surface front to the north. Combine these features with copious moisture (we are getting into the airmass that has been over Texas over the last week), and you have to figure we will be in store for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. Of course, the best chance of them will come during the afternoon and evening hours, but you sure can’t rule out a late night or morning shower in a few spots. The latest QPF graphic from HPC is suggesting rain of 2 to 3 inches on a general basis across Central Alabama through early next week. Of course, everyone won’t get that much, but some spots just might be soaked.
NEXT WEEK: While the synoptic scale features fizzle out, we will remain in a moist, mT airmass (maritime tropical) through the week, so scattered afternoon showers and storms will be possible on a daily basis. We note the GFS tries to push another front down this way in the July 14-15 time frame, which might bring an enhanced coverage of showers and storms if the model is correct.
Needless to say we continue to watch the big time, blazing heat out west with interest, and that bubble of hot air will begin to move east next week, but there is still no sign of any upper high anchoring itself across the Deep South for the rest of July, which means the most intense heat should remain northwest of Alabama. Temperatures and rainfall should be near normal for the next few weeks.
TROPICS: A nice blow-up of convection is seen east of Daytona Beach this morning, but upper air winds don’t really favor any organization there, and our little system in the Atlantic about 600 miles east of the Windward Islands, amazingly enough, is still there despite all of the dry air around it. It will have a very hard time getting cranked up in that environment. The Gulf and the Caribbean remain very quiet.
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I have a little road trip over to West Georgia lined up this morning, but I will skee-daddle back quickly, and I should be able to post the afternoon Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. J.B. will be around during the day for updates on any and all developing thunderstorms. Always nice to have the great Alabama weather legend around here!
