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I hope that everyone reading this Blog post this morning will be able to stay warm with just about the coldest air of this winter season invading the Southeast and Central Alabama. You are waking up to sunshine but temperatures in the 30s. You may be seeing some clouds if you are in East Central Alabama, but those should give way to sun by late morning. Temperatures will stay steady or fall today with readings remaining in the 30s with strong cold air advection. It’s a real atmospheric battle with the sun trying to warm the air and the cold air moving in from the northwest – and while the sun is very powerful, I think the cold air advection with overcome the sun keeping the temperature steady.
And tonight, the combination of clear skies allowing perfect radiational cooling and the cold air advection, I expect to see morning lows Monday in the teens – 19 generally but some of those normally colder locations 12 to 16 degrees. Monday will be one of those to really bundle up for.
The cold weather will be with us through much of the upcoming week as the long wave upper trough remains focused over the eastern half of the country. The whole situation continues to be watched. One of the ingredients for winter weather is to have cold air in place at the surface. We’ve got that. Next, we need to add a surface low preferably along the Gulf Coast with a good fetch of Gulf moisture riding up over the cold air at the ground. That we don’t seem to have. The 06z GFS model run today is very consistent with the run from yesterday in that any Gulf development will be held a little too far south in the Central Gulf to bring significant moisture to the Southeast. This bears watching because only a small change in this forecast can bring spectacular changes to the results. Right now it appears that a strong high over the Central US north of Alabama will keep action too far south for anything serious in the Tuesday-Wednesday time period.
The GFS suggests that we will moderate enough so that the next Gulf low on Thursday and Friday will produce just rain. This seems to be a pattern similar to what we’ve just experienced. Should the moderation be less than the GFS is indicating, then someone in the Southeast will have some major issues. At this moment, though, the GFS is simply not showing that. So we keep our collective eyes on it and see how the next model runs handle the situation. Remember, we’re talking about the development of a storm system that does not even exist yet. And as we well know, a small shift north or south in the pattern can result in drastically different solutions. So for now, there does not appear to be serious concern for winter weather.
Saturday and Sunday the GFS is hinting at some weak disturbances in the overall pattern moving through the trough which might bring some clouds and perhaps a few snow flurries. But the major message is a cold pattern with below normal temperatures. So I do not buy the 62 degrees the GFS MOS has for Friday. A more realistic value would be something in the lower 50s.
Weather can certainly be exciting, and I find it interesting that people get so fired up about our discussions here. As a forecaster, I like to see the forecast stay reasonably consistent from one forecast to the next, but that is often hard to accomplish given the latest model guidance. I also tend to be somewhat conservative in my interpretations of model guidance. I always hope that people will find these discussions interesting and useful, but it does amaze me when people post negative comments when they disagree or don’t like what I say. I guess that’s one of the reasons why meteorologists tend to have thick skins, because I know I won’t be right on every forecast. I’ve had some great winners and some spectacular losers, but I keep plugging away hoping for more of the winners and less of the losers.
Don’t forget our Storm Alert Tour for 2007 kicks off in just four days with the first stop in Tuscaloosa at Shelton State Community College. All shows begin at 7 pm – hope to see you at one of the five stops. Have a great Sunday and great week – stay warm. God bless.
-Brian-
