This is a composite update covering three bases. Scroll down to see the most current Tropical Storm Advisory about Miss Fay. But first…
ALABAMA UPDATE AT MIDNIGHT
It is a part of the very wet system that has affected areas west of Alabama recently due to a low pressure area aloft. Much, much rain in places like Texas and Arkansas. Late tonight an eastern arm from that complex reached SW Alabama. At midnight, locally heavy showers were in progress in these West Alabama locations
Wilcox County
Marengo County
Greene County
South Hale County
The showers were moving north and NW. Very little lightning involved. By far, the more numerous showers in this big complex were over North and Central Mississippi and Arkansas.
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THE GFS WEATHER MODEL AND FAY
The GFS may be the most popular weather model in use for USA weather people. It is used mainly for “regular” weather but it, of course, deals with hurricanes also. The GFS has been unrelenting and insisting that Tropical Storm Fay is going to stall south of Jacksonville, rest for a bit, and turn west across North Florida into the NE Gulf of Mexico. The latest run of the GFS (00Z) (7pm, CDT) brings Fay westward to the Alabama Coast by late Monday and Tuesday morning. If that happens, a drenching is in order.
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NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
It, too, has been persistent. The latest one in association with the latest advisory brings Fay inland over NE Florida and across Extreme South Georgia into South Alabama and by the weekend to about Wilcox County. That, too could be beneficial rainwise.
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REST OF TONIGHT
Unless something unusual happens, this may be our last update for tonight until very early Wednesday morning. So, we close it out with the most up to date advisory from the National Hurricane Center:
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
…FAY WEAKENS SOME MORE WHILE OVER FLORIDA..
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH…AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF
FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND…GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT…0300Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES… 45 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA.
FAY HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH…7
KM/HR…OVERNIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF FAY
WILL MOVE JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. FAY
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DATA
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50
MPH…85 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FURTHER WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT FAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO RESTRENGTHEN WHEN
IT MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB…29.23 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA…WITH MAXIMUM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS FAY APPROACHES.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION…27.7 N…80.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…990 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
