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INTERESTING DAY: We begin this day with a large mass of moderate to heavy rain over North Alabama, and strong storms over the southern half of the state. SPC maintains a tornado watch for the next few hours, but the good news is that there is very little surface based instability, and as expected the biggest issue this morning is the rain. It will be a very sloppy rush hour, so take some extra time to get to work and take a big deep breath. Again, we are thankful the soil is not saturated, so major flooding problems are not anticipated, but local issues in flood prone areas could crop up.
GRAVITY WAVE: We note a tight gradient on the back edge of the rain over West Alabama, and some of our Skywatchers are reporting strong winds in that area, so there is potential for high winds as the rain ends during the next couple of hours, associated with a possible gravity wave. Those winds could be as high as 35 to 45 mph for a brief time, maybe even high enough to knock down a tree or two.
The rain will end by mid-morning, and we should see some sun peeking through the clouds during the midday hours as drier air in the mid levels moves in from the west. This should push temperatures into the 67 to 70 degree range, and accordingly make the air unstable, with surface based CAPE values over 1,500 j/kg by mid-afternoon.
AFTERNOON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: There is a very real chance scattered storms will fire up in the unstable air this afternoon, and with a negative tilt short wave at work aloft, some of those storms could be severe with the potential for hail and strong winds. And, forecast wind profiles suggest there will be a tornado threat as well. Understand it won’t rain everywhere this afternoon; the storms will be rather scattered. But, they will pack a punch and need to be monitored closely. Just be aware that a tornado warning or two is very possible this afternoon, generally in the 2:00 to 6:00 p.m. time frame. All of the storms should be over by 7:00 p.m.
Tomorrow will be a nice day with ample sunshine through scattered clouds and a high around 60. The NAM seems a little out to lunch; that model is much colder with a high of only 51 tomorrow.
WEEKEND STORMS: Yet another storm system to deal with this weekend. The daytime hours Saturday still look dry with a high in the 60s. The main window for the next round of storms will be from about 10:00 p.m. Saturday through 10:00 a.m. Sunday. Much like this morning’s MCS, the good news is that it will come through during the late night and early morning hours, when the atmosphere tends to be rather stable. SPC has shifted the severe weather risk southward this weekend, with Sunday’s risk mainly for the southern quarter of the state. So, for now, the main risk this weekend seems to be from heavy rain and possible flooding. But, let’s get today’s system out of here and we can be much more specific about the weekend threat.
NEXT WEEK: We turn sharply colder Monday, with a high only in the upper 40s along with a chilly north wind. We should be below freezing Tuesday morning before a moderating trend begins Tuesday afternoon. The 06Z GFS hints the next rain event will come at the end of next week, around Friday 1/29.
VOODOO LAND: Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the operational GFS still shows no major cold, Arctic invasion through the first five days of February, but that is not carved in stone. The pattern favors one more big cold shot next month sometime. We will see.
LIVE CHAT: We are now offering a real time chat here on the blog… open blog comments will stay in place, of course, but this will allow a more immediate method of communication for weather geeks. We do have moderators posted over there, so be sure and play nice. Members of our weather team will be there from time to time to answer questions; we will post those times we are available here on the blog.
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STORM ALERT 2010: Our annual severe weather tour across Alabama is about to begin! Our first stop this year will be Thursday evening, January 28 in Winfield at First Baptist Church. You can meet the ABC 33/40 Weather team, see some amazing Alabama weather stories, learn how to keep your family safe this tornado season, and win some cool stuff. The show begins at 7:00; be sure and get there early to get a good seat. See the entire tour schedule here!
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We will keep the blog updated with fresh information throughout the day; if the weather isn’t too active I will crank out another Weather Xtreme video by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
