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DRY TODAY: While we still have some low clouds and fog in spots this morning, today promises to be a nice fall day with a partly to mostly sunny sky along with a high around 70 degrees. Beyond today, the forecast is pretty difficult, and we have made some rather significant changes to the forecast for the weekend.
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY: Moisture will increase with a south wind as a major storm system creeps along west of Alabama. We will need to mention a chance of scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm both days, but the most organized rain will remain west of Alabama, ahead of our major upper trough. A significant severe weather event is likely tomorrow from Texas up to Missouri, along with the risk of flash flooding. Our highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with winds picking up especially on Friday.
Due to the scattered nature of the showers and storms, it will be impossible to tell you exactly when the showers will come and go, but it will be wise to take along the rain gear to high school football games both tomorrow night and Friday night. But, thankfully the main band of showers and storms, which will offer some risk of severe weather, will arrive well after the Friday night games are over.
SATURDAY: Sure looked like this was going to be a dry day earlier in the week, but both the GFS and the ECMWF are much slower with the upper trough, which is very reasonable considering the strength of the system. This means we will to now forecast a good chance of showers and storms on Saturday, and if there is any degree of surface based instability we might be dealing with a risk of strong to severe storms.
The ECMWF keeps the upper trough phased up, while the GFS lifts it out in two chunks. The ECMWF solution hints the best chance of organized showers and storms will come during the day Saturday, while the 00Z GFS actually hints it might be Saturday night before it gets in here. So, we are still dealing with model madness, but no doubt we will need to forecast a good chance of showers and storms now on Saturday, and we will continue to fine tune that forecast as we go along. Rain gear will be in order for the Magic City Classic Saturday, and the trick or treaters could very well be dealing with some rain Saturday evening.
Sunday still looks pleasant with ample sunshine and a high around 70. Great day for the Amp Energy 500 at the Talladega Superspeedway. See the Weather Xtreme video for a detailed breakdown on the forecast.
NEXT WEEK: At this moment the first half of next week looks dry and benign; some hint of colder air moving in Tuesday and Wednesday.
STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up on Saturday November 14 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years). We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
This morning I will be speaking at Trace Crossings Elementary School in Hoover… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
