Thick clouds cover all of Alabama at this hour. Rain has quickly overspread the southwestern two thirds of the state, generally south of US-78.
This rain has formed in response to a surface low over the northern Gulf of Mexico south of Houma, Louisiana.
The heaviest rain activity is back to the southwest and south, over parts of southern Mississippi, Southeast Louisiana, southwestern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. In our area, showers are heaviest over West Alabama over Fayette back into Lamar County and east of Demopolis moving into Perry County.
Temperatures are mainly in the lower 50s, with 49 being reported at 5 p.m. at Muscle Shoals and Tuscaloosa.
A cold front is just northwest of the state. As the low moves east tonight, this front will move across the state, bringing with it northwesterly winds that will be increasing during the day tomorrow. Colder air will also be invading the area, and temperatuers tomorrow will actually continue to fall through the day with a strong northwesterly wind that will make it feel like it is in the 20s. So get ready for a miserable day.
As the colder air arrives late tonight, rain could briefly change to snow over parts of North Alabama. The most likely area for the changeover is north of US-278 from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden to Piedmont. While significant travel problems are not anticipated, check the latest weather conditions before you head out across North Alabama later tonight and Sunday morning.
I think you could see a few snow flurries during the pre-dawn and early morning across the area north of a line from Carrollton to Alabaster to Ashland.
Look for lows in the teens tomorrow night, with some of the normall colder locations perhaps dropping into the lower teens.
The afternoon run of the GFS still downplays the mdiweek system for us but calls for a stronger system in the Friday time frame with a major push of cold air again for the weekend. At face value, the precipitation across Alabama would be liquid with that system, not frozen.
Thanks to JB for handling the morning package for me as I have a school function to attend.
