FAST FACTS ON POWERFUL HURRICANE DEAN…10 AM CDT
LOCATION: 15.7 N…68.6 W or 565 ESE of Kingston Jamaica
MOVEMENT: W-17
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…150 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…929 MB/27.43 inches
RANKING: When Dean’s pressure reached 924 mb earlier this morning, it tied the storm for 17th on the all time list of Atlantic hurricanes in terms of lowest central pressure.
Hurricane Dean is going to go down as a memorable storm.
The Lesser Antilles dodged a bullet Friday morning as a ragged, category two hurricane threaded the needle between Martinique and St. Lucia. As soon as the hurricane got into the Caribbean, it began to feed on the warm waters. At one point, it deepened 15 millibars in just three hours. Winds jumped to 125 mph.
The hurricane became a Category Four storm with top winds of 145 mph last evening. The central pressure has continued to drop steadily overnight and was down to 926 mph just before 7 a.m. I would expect it to become a Category Five hurricane later today.
Dean will spend the day passing about 60-120 miles south of the south coast of the Dominican Republic on a west northwest course. Hurricane warnings are in effect for the southwestern coast of the island of Hispaniola, including the southern coast of Haiti and the southwest coast of the Dominican Republic.
It will likely score a direct hit on the island of Jamaica Sunday. Hurricane warnings are in effect for the island. The Cayman Islands will be next in the storm’s sights. A hurricane watch was just issued for the Caymans. Dean will cross very close to the tiny islands as a severe hurricane with a central pressure around 910 millibars. This is Camille intensity.
On Monday night, it will be making the move from the Caribbean to the Gulf. It may brush the Yucatan, or it may well thread its way through the Yucatan Channel, missing land entirely. A trip across the Yucatan will cost the hurricane 40 mb of strength. But in any case, it will have plenty of time to recover before its next landfall.
Just where that landfall will be may be decided by an innocuous upper low near Florida. This upper low may act as an downfield blocker, clearing a path for the hurricane. The upper low may create a weakness in the ridge that Dean can exploit. If the low does not get the job done, the hurricane may follow a fairly direct course into Northeast Mexico. If its track is slightly bent to the north, a landfall between Brownsville and Freeport on the Texas coast looks likely.
But if the low carves out a path through the ridge,, a landfall on the Upper Texas Coast, maybe over into Southwest Louisiana looks possible. That seems the least likely course for now.
In any case, it will be a powerful hurricane when it does make up its mind where it wants to make its final move to the coast. It may be one for the record books.
Here is a look at the latest spread of model output for the track of Dean.
