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TODAY: Most places are hovering in the 28 to 34 degree range early this morning, but we warm nicely today with ample sunshine to a high around 60 degrees, with low 60s possible over West Alabama. Not bad for a late December day in Alabama.
TO THE WEST: Our next storm system will begin to get it’s act together out west, and it will set the stage for a variety of inclement weather across the nation in the two days before Christmas. A major snow/blizzard event will unfold from the plains of Colorado to the Canadian border of Minnesota and North Dakota; some of the places that will be buried include Omaha, Rapid City, and Minneapolis. Winter storm watches are up for all of these areas. If you are headed up that way, needless to say you will have some big travel problems.
THE ALABAMA STORY: Of course, with a surface low track to the north, we will be in the warm sector so rain will be the issue for Alabama. Clouds will increase tonight and tomorrow, but the rain should remain west of the state. The main band of rain and storms should arrive late Thursday and Thursday night, generally in the period from 4:00 p.m. Thursday through 4:00 a.m. Friday. Rain amounts of around 1 inch are likely, and a few thunderstorms will most likely be embedded in the big rain area. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see that there is basically no surfaced based instability, so severe weather problems look rather low for now. Great dynamics, but very marginal thermodynamics.
COLD AIR FOR CHRISTMAS: In the wake of the pre-Christmas storm, much colder air invades Alabama on Friday. Air flowing over the big snow pack to the north should mean a day with falling temperatures; we will begin the day around 50, but fall to near 40 Friday afternoon with clouds and a brisk north wind.
We will keep an eye on a secondary low forming over the South Carolina coast Friday; sometimes those can bring surprises, but for now we figure the impact will remain north and east of our state.
The weekend ahead looks cold and mostly dry. We are projecting highs on Saturday and Sunday in the 40 to 45 degree range with lots of clouds, and we can’t rule out a snow flurry or two with energy rounding the base of the upper trough over the eastern U.S.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: This week’s pre-Christmas storm is an outlier; and the GFS suggests the El Nino storm machine will keep cranking out the hits in coming weeks. The next one will come at the middle of next week, and for now the model shows a nice surface low coming out of the Gulf with potential for snow across the Mid-South… see the Weather Xtreme video for details. For those that are new here, this is NOT a forecast; we look at medium range model data and long range ideas. If you don’t like long range ideas, this is not the place for you; you can find our forecast here. There is little skill in a specific forecast beyond seven days, but there is skill at pattern recognition and general ideas.
No way we can resolve details on the system next week for now, but it will be interesting to watch. And snow fans, if we miss the chance next week, the GFS paints more opportunities over the New Year’s weekend, and again around January 6-7. The pattern remains cold and unsettled with a negative AO/NAO firmly in place.
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Yep, some kids are still in school; I will be down in Tuscaloosa this morning going a weather program at my old school; Verner Elementary. This is their last day before Christmas break, so we will have a ton of fun. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!
