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We have a pretty firm grip on the expected sequence of events through Sunday, but all bets next week are off the table due to model madness, and the inability to resolve this fast wave train in place across North America.
TOMORROW: The weather looks pretty wet tomorrow and tomorrow night with a nice short wave; the NAM is still pretty aggressive on the rain potential with this, it is printing 1.21″ for Birmingham through tomorrow night. The GFS is jumping on the bandwagon now, showing 1.20″ here, so looks like we might want to bump up the expected rain to around one inch statewide. You bet we will take it. There could be some thunderstorms involved, but the only significant chance of strong to severe storms should be limited to Baldwin and Mobile counties over far Southwest Alabama.
FRIDAY: We will be in-between systems; expect a partly sunny and mild day with a high in the mid 60s.
WEEKEND RAIN: The models continue the idea of bringing in our weekend system a little slower, so we will make some adjustments in our weekend forecast. It now looks like the best chance of organized rain and thunderstorms will come from around 12:00 midnight Saturday night through 12:00 noon Sunday. Amounts of one-half to one inch are likely, and considering the time of day, severe weather doesn’t look especially likely due to limited instability values. We will reach the upper 60s on Saturday, and we will have to raise temperatures on Sunday due to the slower movement of the system.
CHRISTMAS WEEK: The 06Z and 12Z model runs are now showing yet another wave moving through here early next week, with a round of rain Monday afternoon into Monday night (according to the 12Z GFS… see the video for the graphics). As Tim Coleman points out in his post below, the Euro is deeper with the upper trough, and with the lower heights it gives the snow fans some hope. But, I think for now we will amend the forecast to include a chance of rain Monday afternoon and Monday night, followed by colder air on Christmas Day and some lingering clouds.
Like a football coach, you know I like to take waves one at a time, especially in this active pattern, so we really need to get tomorrow’s system out of here before we can feel too confident on next week.
Not much point in digging into voodoo land with this kind of situation, but the a system still shows up in the December 28-29 time frame.
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