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The upper low over the west coast of Florida is beginning to influence our weather as clouds have invaded the state from the east. That along with the position of the surface high over New York and Pennsylvania will combine to bring a brisk easterly flow to the area. The bottom line is that temperatures will be held to the upper 70s for highs. Might have to watch to see if temperatures are even held a tad lower than that.
The upper low is projected to move due north before getting picked up by the main stream westerlies. So the big forecast question will be how far west the significant rain comes. I think our best rain chances for rain will come on Monday and Tuesday with some chance of rain this afternoon over Southeast and East Alabama. Some of the rain you see this morning on radar is probably not reaching the ground due to a fairly substantial dry layer below 20,000 feet.
The upper low gets caught up in the westerlies on Tuesday so it should move quickly away from us opening the way for a dry day on Wednesday. But by Wednesday we will be watching the system off to the northwest of us as it traverses the country and drags a front across the Southeast US. At this time, I think the best rain chances will stay north of us, so I think Thursday will be a dry day. However, we’ll have to watch to see just how much moisture the system can bring with it. The more moisture it has, the greater the chance we’ll see some showers.
With the trough axis by us on Friday, I see a wonderful weekend. That will be great with WeatherFest coming on Saturday, the 15th, at the McWane Science Center in downtown Birmingham from 10 am to 2 pm. If you are a weather enthusiast, be sure to mark your calendar for this great event being held in conjunction with the National Weather Associations annual conference at the Wynfrey Hotel.
Rainfall amounts are likely to remain fairly light with less than a half inch for most locations and that coming in showers. There is going to be a west to east gradient with greater rainfall likely along the Georgia-Alabama line and less likely along the Alabama-Mississippi line.
Tropics are becoming quieter as Philippe becomes extratropical. We are now out of the heart of hurricane season, so the tropics should become less active.
Long range forecasts don’t show any major swings as we continue to see traveling weather systems affect us every few days.
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