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Another reinforcing shot of cold air will make it’s way across Central Alabama today, so I expect highs to once again struggle to reach the mid and upper 40s with a brisk north to northwest wind. But take heart if you like warmer weather because it looks like some moderation will begin Monday with highs potentially reaching the mid 60s on Tuesday. It’s just the warming will be short lived.
A new storm system will take shape on Monday and bring clouds our way late Monday. It looks like rain may arrive as early as Tuesday morning, but I think the bulk of the rain will come Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning. There remains some potential for severe weather with this system. Several parameters favoring severe weather such as low level jet and wind profiles, but there is still some question on whether the lapse rates will be strong enough. And there remains some uncertainty with model differences, so this next system will bear watching. It does appear likely that we will get beneficial rain with it. Rainfall amounts of near 2 inches are likely with some heavier amounts possible especially across Georgia.
The GFS has oscillated back and forth between phasing and not phasing the northern and southern streams. Unfortunately for forecasters, both scenarios are valid. The 06Z run today goes with phasing, so I’ll hang my hat on that. It means that the weather should move in and out fairly quickly. After the warm up on Tuesday we head right back into the deep freeze for the end of the week with lows back below freezing and highs in the upper 40s and 50s. But the weekend looks dry at the moment.
Further into voodoo country, the GFS is staying active with rain possibilities around the 18th/19th and again around the 21st. This would certainly be good for us to help with the rainfall situation. We’re only about an inch below average for the year, so with the potential for three rain events over the next two weeks, we could end the year close to average – there’s even a little hope that we might be slightly above.
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I want to thank the folks in Fayette again for the honor of serving as the Grand Marshall for their Christmas parade. I had a great time and the video starts off with a picture of me in the lovely red Corvette that I got to ride in. And it was great to have the Chief Deputy as my driver to keep me out of trouble. James Spann will be back tomorrow morning with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. Godspeed.
-Brian-
