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The cold front is making slow progress through Alabama. The SKYCAM site at Hamilton is down to 55 degrees; Greenville, MS reports 43, while Fayetteville, AR has light snow and 21 degrees with a wind chill index of 11. Periods of rain will continue tonight as the cold air seeps into Alabama.
RAW DAY: At daybreak tomorrow, I still expect temperatures to range from the mid to upper 20s in Muscle Shoals, to the low 40s down in Randolph and Chambers counties. The Birmingham metro should be somewhere between 35 and 39. Temperatures will fall over East Alabama, and over the rest of the state they will go nowhere. We hold in the 30s all day; an icy north wind will keep wind chill values below freezing much of the day, and the sky should remain mostly cloudy.
The rain will end early in the day, but we will have to watch for any patches of freezing drizzle over Northwest Alabama tomorrow morning where temperatures should be below freezing. But, widespread ice problems are not expected; the cold air is the big deal.
By Wednesday morning, we will be well down in the 20s, with the colder valleys close to 20 degrees. Maybe even upper teens in spots. The sun will be out on Wednesday and the cold air will moderate a bit; we should reach the mid to upper 40s.
THURSDAY: This is an interesting forecast. A weak wave moves through, and the WRF/NAM is hinting at some light rain across the state with 850 mb temps below freezing (5,000 feet). Not enough confidence to really run with this feature just yet. For now we will mention an increase in clouds on Thursday.
MORE COLD AIR: The next shot of cold air follows the wave on Thursday; we will feel that on Friday. Looks like highs in the 40s for Friday and much of the weekend; I still think the GFS is too warm. GFS numbers are simply horrible in the cold air; I am still seeing busts of almost 20 degrees even within 12 hours. Remember, just a couple of days ago the GFS MOS was suggesting we reach the 50s tomorrow. Yep, another 20 degree bust. And, by the way, I won’t be drinking any mayonnaise anytime soon (thank goodness). The weekend should be dry.
BIG TIME COLD? The GFS is hinting at a phased, deep upper trough over the eastern third of the nation early next week, but quite frankly the ECMWF (European) is not on board. If the GFS is correct, we have lots of rain on Monday (a week from today), and then go into the coldest airmass so far this season by Tuesday and Wednesday. This could suggest highs around 30, and lows around 10. But, this is voodoo at this point. I do think the weather will be cold next week, but I am not sure it will be that cold. POSSIBLE, yes. But not enough confidence to jump on it right now. Just keep in mind of the possibility.
THE PATTERN still suggests cold air over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation well into February, and with an active southern stream I can’t imagine not having a few significant winter storm threats in coming weeks. Stay tuned.
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I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow… stay warm!
