The Tuesday afternoon ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:
Wonder where those hate mail guys are today… the ones who fired a rash of nasty e-mail messages back on Friday and Saturday when everyone from “The Weather Channel” to Country Boy Eddie and Sponge Bob were forecasting highs in the 50s and 60s today for Alabama. Right now at our weather office in Riverchase (near the intersection of Valleydale Road and I-65) we have 36 degrees; our SKYCAM site in Hamilton shows 29. Mt Cheaha, in East Alabama, is reporting 30. Our brand new SKYCAM site in Clanton is showing 37 degrees. This cold air is very shallow, and MOS (model output statistics) we all use on a daily basis becomes worthless. Never had a chance to reach the 40s this afternoon. No mayonnaise drinking going on here today, thankfully.
Can’t get too uppity here since we are in the midst of a very complex pattern for specific forecasts to be correct. The pattern is easy: cold and unsettled. Nailing down the day to day changes are very hard.
I encourage you to check the blog often in coming days; we will put our thoughts out here often before we change the forecast over on the seven day planner page on the 33/40 site. And, there will be plenty of changes.
PESKY SOUTHERN STREAM: Watch the video and see that amazing southern stream from the Eastern Pacific, through Mexico, and into the southern part of the U.S. Ripples in that flow cannot be identified easily by computer models, and we have a large area of rain falling along and south of U.S. 80, over the southern half of the state. On the northern edge of this rain mass, there have been a number of reports of sleet, and that will continue through tonight. Don’t expect any travel issues with temperatures down there remaining above freezing.
TOMORROW/THURSDAY: Looks like the clouds will hang around on both days, but the chance of precipitation is rather small. A wedge setup seems likely on Thursday, and our friends to the east might have some ice issues in the broad area from Atlanta to Asheville on Thursday, but that precipitation should remain east of Alabama. Highs will be in the 40s.
FRIDAY: The next cold front passes through Friday, and with some support from the southern stream some rain seems likely on Friday. The zero line at 850 mb (freezing level at 5,000 feet) is near Huntsville; we figure we will be above freezing and at this point the chance of any serious winter weather problems on Friday here looks small.
SATURDAY: This should be a dry and cool day; highs in the 40s and maybe a few peeks of sun through the high jet stream clouds.
SUNDAY: A strong wave coming out of the Southwest U.S. will spin up a storm in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. This sure looks like a classic snow setup for much of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. Yet another big winter storm threat for these folks. Here in Alabama, some warm air advection ahead of the wave should keep us from having any ice problems…. rain should become widespread by Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday night. We will probably have some thunder, and rainfall amounts should be healthy.
MONDAY: The rain moves on to the east, and another shot of colder air arrives. The air will be coming across a rather large snow and ice pack over the nation’s mid-section; the GFS MOS products look horrible (way too warm). Should be a windy and cold day here in Alabama.
REST OF NEXT WEEK: Still some hint of another Gulf storm forming at mid-week, which might bring some winter weather potential to the Deep South. No way to resolve details right now; it is hard enough dealing with this pattern 24 hours in advance, much less one week in advance.
The cold and unsettled weather pattern should continue into February. This will be a winter to remember for much of the nation.
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I had a great time today speaking at Weaver Elementary School in Calhoun County; be looking for those youngsters on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40… I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow… and again, check the blog often for updates in this fascinating pattern!
