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You’d think that I would have become a real expert in new ways to say cold by now. No matter how you slice it, much of the Nation remains in the grip of winter. Across Central Alabama this morning, you are waking up to temperatures generally in the 20s. The Birmingham airport seemed to be the only hold out with a temperature of 33 as I am writing this. I did not, though, that the airport dropped to 28 shortly after midnight, so my forecast of 25 looks pretty good.
Clouds from the Pacific will continue to plague the sky across Central Alabama today with a mixture of sun and those mid and high altitude clouds. I expect to see temperatures climb into the upper 40s today and perhaps a couple of sites may push the 50-degree mark pretty hard. But later this evening I expect to see the arrival of another shot of cold air so Monday will be another one of those raw days with temperatures struggling to get out of the 30s. But if we can survive the cold Monday there appears to be some relief on the way.
The overall pattern of the long wave trough position over the eastern half of the US will be changing. The trough moves eastward into the Atlantic while at the same time moderating its amplitude just a bit. The result for us will be a slow moderation in temperature. It will certainly feel wonderful though I’d have to stop short of calling it warm. But I believe by the latter half of the week we should see temperatures back into the 50s. And remember, early February should typically see highs around 55 so with this long string of below normal temperatures, anything near normal will feel pretty good.
The pattern is expected to remain dry through late Thursday and Friday. It would seem that our best chance of rain will come on Friday, but this does not appear to be a significant rain event. And not everyone will see rain. The Gulf remains cutoff so the Friday system will have to bring moisture with it in order to generate any precipitation. But the really good news is that the rain should be ending late Friday bringing a dry and slightly colder day to Central Alabama for Saturday.
In the longer range, the pattern moderates somewhat in the time frame just before Valentine’s Day with a series of disturbances moving through the overall flow. Right after Valentine’s Day, the GFS is advertising a very strong short wave with severe weather potential for the Central and Southeast US. The surface features a strong low over the Ohio River Valley with a cold front trailing southward across Alabama and into the Gulf. The pattern of a long wave trough over the eastern US returns following the passage of that storm system with a return to cold once again.
I hope that everyone has a great Sunday. Stay warm out there. God bless and always watch for beauty in the environment around you – especially the sky.
-Brian-
