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Still looks like the main chance of showers and storms with the front will come from about 3:00 until 9:00 p.m… and really beneficial rain doesn’t look too likely. The NAM is showing 0.31″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is even drier with only 0.10″.
TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND: Simply beautiful early fall weather with sunny warm days and clear cool nights. The humidity levels will be low as continental air covers Alabama. The models are trending cooler for Saturday morning; the NAM has a low of 53 for Birmingham early Saturday, while the GFS is printing 57. Afternoon highs will be mostly in the low to mid 80s, not too far from normal for late September in Alabama.
NEXT WEEK: At this point it looks like we stay dry Monday and Tuesday, but the 00Z GFS lifts up some really deep moisture in here over the latter half of the week, and with some potential for good rains by Thursday and Friday.
TROPICS: As noted here yesterday, the tropics have gone wild with action all across the Atlantic basin. I really encourage you to take the time to watch the video for the satellite shots and graphics that go along with all of the systems…
TD13: This should move into Mexico tomorrow as Tropical Storm Lorenzo. This will happen well to the south of Brownsville, Texas.
KAREN: NHC’s latest track keeps Karen as a tropical storm for the next 3 days as it moves to the northwest. By early next week, it will be well to the southeast of Bermuda, and there is still some chance it bends back toward the U.S. in response to a blocking high developing north of the system. It will be out there for a long time…. but we will be watching.
BAHAMAS: The system east of Florida remains disorganized. It will be moving to then northeast in coming days.
CARIBBEAN: A wave near Hispanolia is also disorganized. This one is moving in the general direction of the Bahamas, and bears watching despite its current state.
EAST ATLANTIC: A large tropical wave is over the far eastern Atlantic… this has some potential for growth in coming days as it moves to the west/northwest.
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I am headed south this morning to Chilton County, where I will be speaking to the kids at Jemison Elementary School…. then it is back to the office where I will produce the afternoon Weather Xtreme video; it should be loaded by 3:30. Also… this is Severe Weather Awareness Day at Quintard Mall in Oxford… Jason Simpson will be doing the weather live from the mall at 11:00 this morning… Brian Peters will also be there through the day. Be sure and stop by and say hello!
