The Wednesday morning edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:
The RSS feed problem we have experienced over the last two days has been corrected, so all iTunes products should be automatically downloading again, including the Weather Xtreme video and our WeatherBrains podcast. Hopefully that is the last bug on our new server!
BIG PICTURE: A few weeks ago we started making two statements… one was that much of the nation east of the Rockies would deal with very cold air, in some cases the coldest air seen in decades. The other point was that snow and ice threats would most likely develop on the southern periphery of the Arctic air, impacting parts of the Deep South. Both of these statements have verified, anyone can see the amazing cold that is on the board, and last week’s ice and snow over Tennessee, the Carolinas, and northern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia took care of point number two. The overall pattern doesn’t look much different in coming weeks; while the air will modify at times, it still looks very cold and unsettled for much of the eastern half of the nation for the rest of the month.
MILD MORNING: For a change we have no freezing temperatures across the state this morning; I am showing 44 degrees on my thermometer in northern Shelby County. A nice break, indeed. We should head for the upper 50s again today with a mostly cloudy sky. I guess you can’t rule out a few sprinkles today, but with little upper forcing we have opted not to mention any chance of significant rain today. To the north, the surface cold front is not far away. Nashville reports 30 degrees with a north wind gusting to 21 mph, while Muscle Shoals is 15 degrees warmer at 45. That front will make for a very difficult temperature forecast tomorrow.
I can easily see a day tomorrow where Cullman has a high of 41, while Clanton has a high of 58. For now, we will split the difference and mention 50 for Birmingham. But, it should be considerably colder tomorrow for most of you, and the clouds will hang tough with some chance of scattered light rain during the day.
TOMORROW NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING: We note that surface temperatures will be at or just below freezing over parts of North Alabama, especially north of I-20, so any light precipitation that develops could fall in the form of freezing rain or sleet. But, with very limited moisture and no upper air support it should not be a big issue. Friday looks cold with temperatures having a hard time getting out of the low 40s.
THE WEEKEND: The forecast remains difficult. Saturday looks cold and dry, but the surface front will stall out to the south, and the 06Z GFS develops a wave on the front and suggests some chance of rain here on Sunday. We will probably have to look at inserting rain in the forecast for Sunday if that shows up on the 12Z run a little later this morning. The high Sunday will be in the 40s, so if the rain comes it will be a cold rain.
NEXT WEEK: The 06z GFS brings in a nice wave on Tuesday with rain statewide; then after a break on Wednesday a stronger upper wave generates a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, with snow potential for Tennessee and the northern part of Alabama and Georgia. I am not forecasting that, I am just telling you the model is suggesting that. Is it possible? Sure. In fact, that kind of “runner” is likely in this pattern, but trying to be specific is impossible. If there is snow, it might be Knoxville or Atlanta. Maybe Birmingham. I just don’t know.
And, another similar storm shows up a couple of days later on February 19, with snow for parts of the Deep South, and rain and storms in the warm sector over Florida and near the Gulf coast. All voodoo, you know, but once again this pattern favors stuff like this. Needless to say, we will have plenty to discuss here in coming weeks.
WEATHER PARTY: Check out the stories on our sister site, weatherparty.com. I see the Governor of Oregon is planning on removing the state climatologist because he doesn’t buy into the catastrophic, man-made global warming scenario. That is pretty “chilling” in itself.
SHOUT OUT: Thanks to Gary Aycock over at Pell City High School for reading our blog, one of the 30,000 or so readers we have on a daily basis. Our number of unique users has soared to over 50,000 on active days, with almost 100,000 page views. This is why we upgraded the server this past weekend!
Another busy day ahead; I am off this morning to Walker County to speak to the students at Curry Middle School. I will be back in the weather office by early afternoon and will have the Weather Xtreme video loaded by 3:30!
