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RIGHT NOW: Rain is ending across Alabama this afternoon as a deepening surface low near Tallahassee moves northeast. Rain totals of 1 to 2 inches have been common across Central Alabama during the past 18 hours, and this big storm is rolling northeast into cold air, meaning potential for 10 to 20 inches of snow for our friends to the northeast. Some of the cities expecting a big snow include Raleigh, Charlotte, Washington, Baltimore, and Philadelphia. Snow will be an issue for New York City and Boston as well over the weekend. Good luck if you are trying to fly into any of those cities.
OUR WEEKEND: Cloudy and cold weather continues tomorrow, and a disturbance aloft will bring the chance of a few sprinkles or snow flurries tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. Moisture is very shallow, and the precipitation is not expected to be very significant. Then, Sunday looks cold and dry with a partly sunny sky and a high in the mid 40s.
FLAKES OR STORMS NEXT WEEK? You can see the model madness by comparing the 12Z runs of the GFS and the ECMWF. The American model has the main surface low near Chicago Thursday, while the Euro has it near Greenville, Mississippi. The pattern favors the southern track, and there is no doubt some parts of the nation will be slammed with heavy snow just before Christmas, and other folks will deal with heavy rain and potentially strong thunderstorms.
I note the HPC guys like the southern track as well… this is their afternoon discussion:
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
150 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009
VALID 12Z MON DEC 21 2009 – 12Z FRI DEC 25 2009
WE REMAIN IN A QUITE INTERESTING AND STORMY HOLIDAY WEATHER
PATTERN FOR OUR FINE NATION.
SHORT RANGE DIFFERENCES WITH ENERGY DETAILS/INTERACTIONS REACHING
WRN NOAM…SEE OUR PMDHMD DISCUSSION…BECOME MORE ROBUST
DOWNSTREAM MIDWEEK THROUGH CHRISTMAS. WHILE PLAUSIBLE…WE REMAIN
SKEPTICAL OF THE 00Z/18 ECMWF TREND TO SUCH DEEP LOW DEVELOPMENT
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK TO
CHRISTMAS DESPITE CONTINUED SUPPORT FROM RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS
AND GEM GLOBAL UNDER AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ALOFT. THERE COULD STILL
BE A DECENT PARENT LOW THAT WILL FOCUS QUITE A SWATH OF
WRAP-AROUND HEAVY SNOWS CONSIDERING INFLOW/LIFT…BUT THE 00 UTC
UKMET AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOWED THE BULK OF ENERGY MORE
SUPPRESSED BY A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM. THE 12 UTC UKMET/ECMWF
NOW ALSO FAVOR THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION…BUT NOT THE 12 UTC
GFS/CANADIAN. ALL OF THESE 12 UTC MODELS HAVE PRETTY MUCH STAYED
WITH THEIR 00 UTC MODEL SOLUTIONS RESPECTIVELY EXCEPT FOR THE
ECMWF THAT HAS TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY MORE TOWARD A MORE SRN
EMPHASIS. THIS TREND LEADS TO MORE RAPID ENERGY TRANSFER AND HEAVY
WINTER PCPN POTENTIAL INTO/AROUND A TRIPLE POINT LOW MORE ACROSS
THE SRN US AND THEN ERN US COASTAL SYSTEM AS DID A CLUSTER OF THE
LAST SEVERAL ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AND SOME OLDER DETERMINISTIC
RUNS. THE STRONG BLOCK HELD IN PLACE BY THE NEGATIVE NAO COULD
ACT TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION UNLESS THERE IS A MORE ROBUST PATTERN DESTABILIZATION.
ACCORDINGLY…FINAL HPC PROGS MAINTAIN HPC CONTINUITY AND REMAIN
PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM THE 00 UTC ECMWF DAYS 3/4 BEFORE SWITCHING
TO THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLES WED-CHRISTMAS.
Remember, just four days ago the GFS suggested today would be bone dry with a high in the 50s over North Alabama, which needless to say, was slightly WRONG. I believe we will have much better clarity and a decent first look at a rain-snow line (which will be moving, of course, during the event) late in the weekend. Rain or snow here, one way or another, Christmas Day sure looks very cold.
COLD UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE NEW YEAR: No sign of this active pattern ending; an active southern jet with cold air means potential for lots of mischief into January.
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We had a wonderful Christmas party here at ABC 33/40 this afternoon… most of us have been together now for 13 years, since the station was formed, and I consider everybody here just like family. Thanks to my bosses Mike Murphy, Garry Kelly, and all of my associated for making this a truly wonderful place to work.
Brian Peters will have the Weather Xtreme videos over the weekend, my next video will be posted bright and early Monday morning by 7:00!
