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So far, I would have to classify mid-July 2011 as non-typical what with a high of only 84 at Birmingham, thunderstorms lasting well into the nighttime hours, and the extensive coverage of storms that we’ve seen. This unusual weather pattern is the result of a combination of factors, primarily an upper level weakness or area of lowered pressure and a surface high to our northeast helping to set up a wedge pattern. These two factors along with a fairly extensive cloud cover and increased soil moisture helped to keep the temperatures down yesterday. The only way to know it really is July was to look at (or step outside and feel) the humidity!
The pattern of the surface high and the upper level weakness will keep the weather unsettled today and Sunday with the main focus for rain from Central Alabama into South Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. But as the upper level weakness gradually moves westward along the Gulf Coast, I expect to see a reduction in storms on Monday and Tuesday for us. There is still the potential for an isolated shower or two, however, I believe the result will be dry weather for most of us. And the temperature is likely to begin to climb back into the 90s as the soil dries, the wedge weakens, and the clouds become fewer. So we need to enjoy the cooler and wetter weather even if it is the weekend.
The upper level weakness migrates westward into South Texas while the ridge over the Central US becomes somewhat stronger. By Wednesday and into the latter part of the upcoming week we’ll see the potential for daily showers return along with the heat as highs climb back toward the mid 90s.
No tropical activity to talk about. The SPC folks focusing the main severe weather threat along the northern tier of the US on Day 1 through Day 3 where a strong short wave will be riding along the top of the ridge.
Rainfall for us will continue to be spotty just by the nature of the storms. Those who get under the core of a storm could see an inch or more with each storm. I missed the core yesterday but still recorded 11 hundredths of an inch of rain.
And be sure to watch the video to see what returns in voodoo country. The GFS is painting a big trough over the eastern half of the country for the end of July. I like the look of that and am hopeful that it will come to be! That would certainly cool us down for several days as the GFS suggests the eastern US trough from the 25th through the 31st. We have seen this forecast before and it went away the next day, so we’ll just have to wait and see what happens – but I have my fingers crossed!
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I hope you have a wonderful day. I anticipate having the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am or so on Sunday morning. Godspeed.
-Brian-
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