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INTERESTING EVENT: Many tornado warnings for Alabama during the past 24 hours, but very little damage and few confirmed tornadoes. We will get our resident researcher, Dr. Tim Coleman, on this one to take a look. I continue to believe that humility is seriously missing in our science; there is simply much we don’t know about the atmosphere. A set of similar circumstances at other times would have produced more tornadoes, most likely. One thing we do know; the main dynamics (surface low, upper forcing, etc) were well to the north of Alabama, which I am sure played a role.
REST OF THE AFTERNOON: The surface boundary has actually been drifting northward in recent hours; the well defined front is roughly along I-59. South of the front, Montgomery has soared to 90 degrees… the dewpoint is 72 at the Shelby County Airport in Calera. North of the front, the dewpoint is only 56 at Muscle Shoals. A tornado watch remains in effect until 7:00 for counties along and south of the front, as SPC still believes a few tornadoes are possible with the stronger storms. The severe weather threat fades away tonight as the sun sets. We will be keeping a close eye on radar trends for the next few hours, but the radar can get a good rest beginning tomorrow.
COOL CHANGE: The front kicks to the south late tonight, and the coolest air so far this season blows in here tomorrow with a brisk north breeze. The high tomorrow, despite a sunny sky, will be in the 70 to 74 degree range, and by Friday morning we will be down into the 38 to 42 degree range. Friday will remain sunny with a high only in the mid 60s.
DRY WEEKEND: The cool, dry weather will persist into the weekend, with sunshine in full supply Saturday and Sunday along with highs in the low to mid 70s. The coldest morning will come early Saturday, when most spots will wind up in the upper 30s with a chance of frost on the ole Halloween pumpkins. The colder valleys and protected areas have a good chance of seeing a light freeze.
NEXT WEEK: Dry weather continues Monday, but a deep, closer upper low forms over Alabama at mid-week, making for unsettled weather conditions Tuesday through Friday. These systems are very hard to forecast, but it is likely that we will have showers on many of these days, and possibly some thunder. The good news is that it doesn’t look like a severe weather setup for Alabama at this point. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.
TROPICS: There are a few suspicious areas across the tropical Atlantic, but they are unorganized, and are not in a position to develop and impact the U.S. mainland. See them on the video.
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I had to cancel appearances today at Gardendale Elementary, Woodland Forrest Elementary, and Cottage Hill Baptist Church in Pleasant Grove due to the severe weather threat… just one of those things. We will get back on the regular production schedule tomorrow with the first Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 or so. Stay tuned for updates on storms for the rest of the afternoon and tonight…
