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Looks like the heat will crank up a bit as we see the highs climb into the upper 90s for today through Tuesday. The heat is courtesy of the upper ridge which is once again building into and across the Southeast US. The upper ridge is actually building northward, too, into Michigan. The 5 am temperatures in parts of the South were in the lower 80s – yuck!
With the upper ridge settling back into the area, we will see very few showers in Central Alabama for the next couple of days – at least through Tuesday. By Wednesday, the upper ridge begins to weaken as a strong trough comes out of the western US. This strong trough offers us some of the best hope we’ve seen in some time for a good shot at some rain – especially on Thursday. With the trough inching closer on Wednesday, it will be time to re-introduce the chances for showers. But as the trough comes across the Mississippi River on Thursday, I think we will see a good chance of rain with thunderstorms likely. Some spots still may not see any rain just do to the spotty nature of showers.
Rain chances stay fairly good on Friday, too, especially for the eastern half of Alabama. But by Saturday and Sunday we’ve back into the shower regime with a weakness in the upper pattern which will help to promote showers in the heat of the day. But besides the great rain chances, it looks like we could see what I have to describe as cooler weather with some small chances that highs will actually dip back to the upper 80s! Won’t that feel great?
Rainfall amounts are likely to be near one inch on Thursday, more for those spots that get rain Wednesday and Friday, too.
SPC continues to outlook areas to our north and northwest for severe weather out all the say to Day 4. By Day 4 the threat has shifted from the Central Plains into the area northeast of Alabama. At this time, it does not appear likely that we will have a significant occurrence of severe weather on Thursday. But we may see some storms reach marginal severe weather criteria, so I would not be surprised to see a few warnings.
Tropics are quiet at this time.
Looking out further into the future, the weakness in the upper flow remains with us as we head into the first few days of July. In fact, the GFS is painting a rather strong closed low and trough over the eastern half of the country. If that pattern comes to be, we could see some coolish days for the first few of July – said with optimism in my voice!!
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Had a great time at Fort Morgan and the Gulf Coast and hate to see the vacation end. But it is nice to get back home, too. James Spann should be back first thing tomorrow morning with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. Happy Father’s Day!! Godspeed.
-Brian-
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