Not much change in our thinking early this morning. A strong late winter storm system will bring severe weather to much of Alabama tonight. The greatest threat for severe weather will come between 9 p.m. tonight and 9 a.m. tomorrow.
Strong low pressure over western Kansas this morning continues to intensify. By tonight, it will have a pressure near the center of 982 mb, or as strong as a Category One hurricane as it heads toward northwestern Missouri.
Temperatures are in the 40s early this morning. They climb into the middle to upper 60s this afternoon. There will be a few breaks in the clouds this morning. Places that see a little more sun might make 70 today. Dewpoints are very low…currently at Birmingham it is a bone dry 12F. So the atmosphere has to really moisten. It will do that on strong southerly winds through the atmosphere this afternoon and tonight.
A lake wind advisory kicks in at 10 a.m. as southeasterly winds will be increasing to 15-30 mph by late morning and continuing through Sunday. Boaters will have to pay attention to the wind today.
Thunderstorms will break out to our west today. A significant outbreak of tornadoes is possible over southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana and much of western Mississippi. Those storms will race eastward tonight, reaching western sections of the state by mid-evening. They will probably be discrete supercells when they reach us tonight, transitioning into a squall line.
Instability will be the big question. We think the system might be able to scrounge up 500 to 1000 j/kg of CAPE by late tonight, mainly over areas south of a Tuscaloosa to Calera to Wedowee line. North of there, instability will be lower.
Wind shear will not be a problem. Wind shear will be off the scale, with values approaching 1000 m2/s2.
With winds screaming just off the surface, it will not be hard to get those strong winds to the surface, and powerful bow echoes will produce damaging winds across North and Central Alabama.
But in addition to the damaging winds, we generally get some significant, quick hitting tornadoes with this type of event. And I caution that if instability levels can climb, we could move to more powerful, longer track tornadoes.
It will be the kind of day and night where you will want to stay on top of the latest weather developments. And review your personal tornado safety plan. Go by Publix or Handy City locations and get one of those top of the line Midland Weather Radios for just $29.95. Program it with the right frequency and code for your county. Set it on alert, and be ready. Then be with us at ABC3340 in all our different forms: television coverage, streaming on the web, E-warn, or right here on the blog.
A special note to our friends in mobile homes…we want you to think about where you might go tonight if severe weather watches are required. Think about a friend or neighbor with a more substantial house that would enjoy a visit from you tonight when the weather turns severe in your area. We don’t want you to be in manufactured housing tonight whether the severe threat is tornadoes or damaging winds.
