The latest radar trends, surface data, and the model indications that the low-level jet will move into west AL tomorrow morning, suggest that the warm front will make it east of BHM by morning, bringing dewpoints near 70. It also looks like there could be a brief period tomorrow morning when there is no rain in parts of north and central Alabama, and maybe a little sunshine. This will make temperatures warm into the mid or maybe upper 70s. This will cause sufficient instability, given the strong winds, for supercells and tornadoes to develop over eastern MS and into northern and central AL. So, it looks like the worst-case scenario is coming together for Alabama.
The conditions are in place for significant tornadoes. That doesn’t mean we’re looking at another April 8, 1998 nor April 3, 1974. Sometimes the conditions come together but we get lucky and get by with only winds and hail. But, it could be a big deal, and you need to be ready. Have a source of information nearby all day, and have a plan for a tornado warning.
I expect SPC will place NE MS and NW AL into a high risk when the new severe weather outlook is issued at 1 am.
