Out in the far eastern Atlantic…Tropical Storm Dean is beginning to encounter less shear and will begin a steady strengthening process that will take it to major hurricane status by the weekend…
Here is an infrared satellite photo from tonight…
The model guidance is becoming more tightly clustered on a weaterly track that will carry it into the eastern Caribbean. This may mean an eventual track into the Gulf of Mexico. Where does it go from there? The afternoon run of the GFS indicated the SW Louisiana coast. The morning run had centered on Houston/Galveston. The general time will be about nine days from now.
Of course, any specific forecast beyond five days is sheer folly, just a piece of model conjecture.
The official 5 day track takes it to south of the island of Hispaniola by late Sunday.
We will have plenty of time to watch this one through the weekend and into next week.
