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Rather interesting pattern today with observations simply not matching the forecast model output well. It would appear that drier air off to our northwest as depicted on the Little Rock sounding last night has made it’s way into Central Alabama. At least, radar and satellite data, all observational tools, suggest that this is the case. Model output in the form of the maps suggests that we still have a reasonable chance for showers. But I think the main area for showers today will be south and east of Birmingham.
The eastern US trough stays with us for the next several days, but with slightly drier air aloft, I think the risk for showers is rather small. Isolated showers are always a possibility, but I think most of us will remain dry for the next several days.
The trough migrates further east on Tuesday allowing us to become more influenced by the ridge to our west. But the GFS has an interesting solution with an upper level low over East Texas by Thursday. This upper level feature will certainly enhance shower possibilities in its vicinity as it moves ever so slowly to the east.
By Saturday, the little disturbance begins to get picked up by a trough moving across the northern US. This should open the way for more showers as we head into next weekend.
Gulf water temperatures are quite warm, but so far the tropics remains rather quiet with no areas to focus on.
Also, nothing to suggest in the long range that we will be seeing any significant heat. And that is really good news to me after the way June started on a hot note.
I’m up at Mt. Cheaha right now enjoying the coolness and the deer. We brought corn with us again, and the deer are becoming regular visitors several times a day. I’m not sure that the corn will last until we head back down the mountain. And last night my wife and I went to Ashland to the historic Ashland Theatre to take in their presentation of “Generations.” It was great community theater and the restoration of the building has really gone well. The show continues tonight and Sunday with a matinee if you want to take in some wholesome entertainment.
I plan to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8:30 or so tomorrow morning. Have a great Saturday. God bless.
-Brian-
