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DRIER DAYS: No rain showing up on radar over the northern half of Alabama, and we note dewpoints dropping into the upper 60s over the Tennessee Valley. This means dry air is winning the battle, and it sure looks mostly rain-free around here through Friday. Lots of sun each day with highs around 90 degrees; any showers should be confined to South Alabama, and even down there they should be widely spaced.
WEEKEND: Moisture slowly returns over the weekend, and we will broad brush the forecast with your standard summer verbiage; partly sunny with a risk of scattered, mostly afternoon showers and storms on Saturday and Sunday. The chance of any one spot getting wet is about one in three, and the high will be in the 89 to 92 degree range. That routine pattern should continue into early next week as the upper ridge slowly rebuilds.
ACTIVE TROPICS: Watch the Weather Xtreme video for the latest tropical graphics… TD 2 is forecast to become tropical storm Ana within the next 24 hours, and the well defined wave that has emerged off the coast of Africa could become tropical storm Bill in a day or two. Both of these are in the far eastern Atlantic; a long way away from the U.S. mainland.
Model output is very consistent on TD 2, with the system expected to be north of the Virgin Islands by early next week. The GFS brings it to the Bahamas, then turning it northward with a potential landfall on the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. in about 8 days. This is all voodoo, of course, but the upper air pattern and consistent modeling tend to favor the idea. It does not look like a system that will disturb the Gulf of Mexico at this point.
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I have a very early speaking engagement tomorrow at First Baptist Church in Tuscaloosa (6:00 a.m.!)… so I will probably post some kind of discussion and perhaps a fresh video late tonight. I will get back on the regular schedule tomorrow afternoon….
