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Looks like we can sum up the next five to seven days with a word – dry! And while I was preparing the Weather Xtreme Video for this morning, the National Hurricane Center has named Jose which was located just south of Bermuda. The future track is northward just west of Bermuda, so no threat to any other land mass besides Bermuda.
In the meantime, Irene continued to lash the Mid-Atlantic States from the Carolinas to New England. Rainfall amounts will reach the 12 to 18 inch range with some serious flooding issues over the next week for those folks. Irene was at about 75 mph on top wind this morning and is likely to be downgraded to a tropical storm later today as the center comes ashore in New York City. At last count, 10 deaths were being blamed on Irene.
Elsewhere across the country, the upper ridge was the main story in addition to Irene. Texas would sure like to have some of the rain Irene is bringing to the Mid-Atlantic region. For the near future, thanks to Irene, we have some drier air which made the lower 90s yesterday feel pretty good. Somehow a high of 93 with a humidity around 25 percent seemed very nice.
The trough over the eastern half of the country will advance into the Atlantic but keep us in the drier air for a couple of days, probably through Tuesday. As the upper ridge begins to exert its influence over us on Wednesday, moisture levels will increase but I think we stay dry on Wednesday. By Thursday, Friday, and into the weekend, the main forcing will be the afternoon warmth, so isolated showers become possible. I think most of us will remain dry with only a few showers to deal with on a daily basis.
The GFS develops a small disturbance over the Northwest Gulf on Friday which could bring some rain to the Louisiana and Southeast Texas coastal areas. This little upper air disturbance is somewhat isolated, so it is expected to meander around that area through the weekend. While close to us, it is probably going to stay well west and southwest of us, so not likely to have much impact on us.
Tropics continue to be somewhat active as I noted the naming of Jose. Another disturbance, a rather good looking one on satellite, has emerged off the African continent and could possibly become the next named storm, Katia. The GFS suggests that it will stay well out to sea and away from the US. Bermuda may feel the effects of this one.
Still no sign of any significant rain chances until we get well to the end of the voodoo period. The GFS promises a round of rain around the 12th of September, but we can hope something might happen sooner for us.
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Enjoy the drier air. Sure feels good this morning. Enjoyed working with the folks at En Fuego in Chilton County yesterday. While their festival was dry, Godspeed.
-Brian-
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