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Seems of late that the word ‘dry’ is cropping up in my forecasts and discussions. And here it is again. It sure looks like we are going to remain dry for at least the next 7 days, perhaps longer than that. One small prospect for rain comes on Tuesday.
The pattern of cool mornings and warm afternoons will be with us for the weekend and into next week. Kyle and the upper low over the western sections of the Carolinas will head off to the north and northeast away from us leaving great weather behind for us to enjoy.
On Tuesday, a developing trough that promises some pretty chilly weather for Central Alabama enters the picture. With it comes a surface front, but all indications are that it will come through dry. A shower or two may be possible with cooler air aloft and some instability, but there is very little moisture for it to work with. The result is that I think we won’t see much chance for rain.
Then Wednesday and Thursday mornings will be a bit chilly again as we drop back to lows around 50 once again.
Tropics are relatively quiet. Kyle will probably become a hurricane later today as he treks northward and just brushes New England heading toward the Canadian Maritimes. New England will probably see some significant rain as he goes by. Boston and Portland are both above their typical annual rainfall so far in 2008, so they don’t need the rain but they are going to get some.
A weak tropical disturbance now over Yucatan is projected to move slowly north-northeastward and eventually move across the Florida Peninsula late Tuesday. We’ll have to watch that system for any kind of development. Upper level shear is not very favorable for development at this time.
And an area of disturbed weather was located in the Central Atlantic, but upper level conditions remain unfavorable for any development as it moves west-northwestward.
James had a long discussion for the weather for the races at Talladega next weekend, and now the GFS is trending back toward the dry side. So right now it looks like a beautiful Fall race weekend, but we’ll keep checking on how that forecast evolves.
Around October 10th which is well into voodoo country, the GFS is suggesting a possible shot at some rain followed by even cooler weather. The surface map for the 11th shows the 540 thickness line reaching south all the way to the Tennessee-Kentucky border. But remember that’s voodoo!!! Just fun to watch.
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Got to head upstairs to do some more painting. My wife is in Chicago with my daughter enjoying the lovely cool weather there. I sure would not mind being in the travel trailer on Cheaha, but there are tasks that must be done, too. I hope that you have a chance to enjoy this gorgeous weather. Godspeed.
-Brian-
