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Be sure and scroll down for the coastal impact statement I wrote earlier this afternoon… hopefully that will answer your questions if you are planning a beach trip for Labor Day weekend. Decisions, decisions…
SHORT TERM: Lots of sunshine tomorrow and Friday with highs in the 90 to 93 degree range. Clear weather for high school football games tomorrow night and Friday night.
LABOR DAY WEEKEND: A few widely scattered showers could show up Saturday or Sunday, but the weather will remain generally dry with highs holding between 90 and 93. Our weather Monday and Tuesday all depends on ole Gus….
GUSTAV: Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics associated with this discussion…
Starting to see a little more spread in model output; the NOGAPS is an outlier to the east, taking the system to near Apalachicola; the ECMWF remains the outlier to the west with a landfall around Galveston. The GFDL rolls the thing into Waveland, Mississippi, similar to Katrina and Camille.
I still believe the highest probability of landfall will be from Morgan City, Louisiana to Gulf Shores, Alabama, but interests as far west as Galveston, and as far east as Tampa Bay will need to monitor the progress of this hurricane very closely.
INTENSITY: This is where we really don’t have much skill. Yep, you can see the HWRF and the GFDL for yourself on the video… those kind of intensities are certainly possible. But, if a little southwest shear and dry air gets involved, this could be a minimal hurricane at the time of landfall. Nobody knows at this point, but emergency planners and the public will need to plan for the worst, and hope for the best. Decisions on evacuations will be made within the next 48 hours.
GUSTAV AND NORTH ALABAMA: If Gustav comes into the Mississippi coast, we will be on the nasty east side. Lots of wind and rain with potential for widespread tree and power line damage if Gustav is a major hurricane, most likely during the day Tuesday. We won’t really be comfortable forecasting this until Friday… still very early in the game to be worried too much. But, we could be impacted in a big way.
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I had a great time seeing the 8th graders at Huffman Middle School this morning; be looking for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow… with frequent updates between now and then thanks to the great Alabama weather legend, J.B. Elliott….
