Just before 2 o’clock this afternoon, nothing going on across Alabama. In fact, the nearest thunderstorms was a line of storms over in East Arkansas.
Plenty of rich moisture across Alabama. Brisk southerly winds over 20 mph at times have caused dew points to rise into the 60s over the entire state and as high as 66 in South Alabama.
Latest NAM model data indicates that the main line of showers and thunderstorms will be across West Tennessee and NW Mississippi before daybreak. The GFS places the line of thunderstorms at 6:00 tomorrow morning in generally the same area, but reaching Central Alabama by midday or a little later. All of this is subject to change. James will have a complete video discussion available a little later and he will go into great detail.
SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION
Two Tornado Watches are in effect for areas west of Alabama this afternoon, but neither is labeled a PDS Watch (Paricularly Dangerous Situation). One watch covers Central and South Arkansas and extreme North Louisiana until 4:00 p.m. today. The other one is for NE Arkansas, extreme SE Missouri and the southern tip of Illinois until 5:00 p.m.
The last Tornado Warning today was shortly after 11:00 issued from Little Rock. A radar check at 2:00 p.m. showed the main line of thunderstorms was through Eastern Arkansas and across NW Louisiana. Lightning output is surprisingly light in these storms so far.
The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Moderate Risk for this afternoon and tonight over about the east half of Arkansas, the NE edge of Louisiana, NW Mississippi and the extreme west parts of Tennessee and Kentucky and the Missouri boothill.
So far, a Moderate Risk has not been posted for tomorrow, but a Slight Risk area includes all of Alabama and a wide area from Mississippi and South Louisiana all the way north to Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Buffalo.
