Click image to enlarge
A very complex weather situation across Alabama this afternoon.
A warm, moist airmass is in place across all of the South. A cold front is pushing in from the northwest. It extends from Kentucky into northern Arkansas. The combination was forecast to produce widespread thunderstorms, some of which would become severe, from Louisiana and Arkansas to Washington DC today, including much of North and Central Alabama.
This morning’s thunderstorm complex threw a monkey wrench in this forecast. It did that by leaving considerable cloudiness in its wake. This prevented rapid heating during the morning and the storms worked the atmosphere over.
That storm complex left an outflow boundary generally along I-22 from Birmingham back into western Tennessee.
Another distinct outflow boundary lies across Central Mississippi generally from Meridian to Jackson back along I-20 to near Monroe in northern Louisiana.
We are now watching to see where storms are going to form. That might come:
…over Central Mississippi back into West Central Alabama along that earlier outflow boundary. Skies have cleared in this area and the mercury has soared into the 90s across the Mississippi Delta. This activity would push southeastward and perhaps affect West Central Alabama. The SPC hinted at the possibility of a severe thunderstorm watch in this area.
…ahead of the front over Central Tennessee later this afternoon, firing off to the southwest into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi like a string of firecrackers, pushing south overnight to near I-20 by daybreak.
As to severe potential, drier air aloft is moving in from the northwest and will help enhance the potential for damaging winds for any storms that form over western Tennessee and push southeast into northern Mississippi and western Alabama later this afternoon or tonight.
The airmass is quite moist, so heavy rainfall will fall from the stronger storms. And as we have seen in recent days, intense lightning will be a problem.
Nearly every lightning death is preventable if you are following basic lightning safety rules. Just being inside a substantial structure reduces it by over 90%. Following a few other rules like staying away from plumbing and electrical lines increasing it to nearly 100%
