The NWS/SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has upgraded the risk of severe weather tomorrow to moderate over a wide area, including virtually all of Alabama.
I have been in weather for eons and I do not ever remember seeing a moderate risk area cover such a large territory, especially on day two.
Generally, the moderate risk area covers from Northern Illinois, down through Central Missouri, to Western Arkansas and eastward to cover almost all of Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia as well as the west half of Tennessee, West Kentucky, south two-thirds of Illinois, SW Indiana, the east half of Missouri and almost all of Arkansas.
The portion of the SPC discussion that pertains to Alabama and Mississippi says that “maximized surface heating will coincide with optimal vertical shear and increasing low level moisture to maximize the risk for severe hail, wind, and in particular significant tornadoes. A few long-lived and long-track super cells are possible.”
That is only part of the discussion. Do not be surprised if at some point tomorrow we are upgraded to a high risk area.
Let us hope not. Let us pray not.
This blog post is certainly not to scare you, but just to give you a heads up. James Spann will have a complete video discussion posted here by around 2:30 with all the graphics and detail.
