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About the only thing missing in this forecast: earthquakes, tsunamis, and heat waves. Let’s break it down…
TODAY/TONIGHT: I am still not very bullish over the prospects of severe weather in Alabama during the next 36 hours, but with thunderstorms expect the unexpected, and considering the time of the year we will all have to pay close attention to thunderstorm developments through midday tomorrow. SPC has a slight risk of severe weather for roughly the western half of Alabama through tonight, and then on to the west over much of Mississippi.
Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see there will be very little surface based instability around here with this event; the best CAPE values will remain west of Alabama. Helicity values are also fairly low, but there will be a surface boundary around, which sometimes can mean backed surface winds and a few rotating updrafts. Bottom line is that I don’t expect a big problem with severe weather, but you still need to be around a good source of warnings just in case.
A BIG SOAKING: Heavy rain is the big issue; the NWS in Birmingham has issued a flash flood watch through tomorrow. The NAM is printing 2.49″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is a little wetter with 2.81″. The NCEP QPF graphics shows a bulls-eye of 5.1 inches around Anniston, which seems a little aggressive to me. But, with a stalled front and a surface wave, this is usually a very effective rain producer for Alabama. We can be thankful the ground can handle lots of rain, but people in flood prone areas need to be alert just in case issues do develop.
TOMORROW/SUNDAY: The rain will diminish tomorrow afternoon as the surface wave moves away, and then the attention turns to the cold core upper low approaching from the northwest. Once again, I stress, there is very little skill in forecasting snow placement and amounts with these kind of features here in Alabama. Everybody likes to guess, and of the guessers will be right, but we don’t like to guess here. And, we won’t.
We will forecast a chance of snow from about 9:00 tomorrow night through 9:00 Sunday morning. Under the cold core, there should be a strip of accumulating snow, perhaps as much as 5 inches. But, we have no way of knowing now where that will be. And, that heavier snow belt should be pretty narrow; most folks won’t get nearly that much. Where will the heaviest snow fall? Might be Atlanta, Chattanooga, Gadsden, Birmingham, or Tuscaloosa. Just too early for a call. The higher probabilities for accumulating snow in Alabama are for places like Oneonta, Gadsden, and Anniston, but that is not a forecast. The ground is relatively warm as well, which will limit accumulation to some degree.
A cold core upper low is a weatherman’s woe, so be ready for surprises. All of those fancy model snow accumulation charts won’t help too much.
The snow showers will end Sunday morning, and the sun breaks out during the day, but the weather will be windy and cold with a high only in the mid 40s. Then, we will be in the 20s by daybreak Monday.
NEXT WEEK: At this time it looks like the week will be dry with pleasant afternoons.
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The blog will be hopping through the weekend. Take a deep breath and be nice; lively discussion is good, but personal attacks and profanity won’t work. We will have frequent updates, so stay tuned… I will crank out an afternoon edition of the Weather Xtreme video, weather permitting!
