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ALL OJ ALL THE TIME?: Maybe it is just me, but I don’t understand the cable news networks going with coverage of O.J. Simpson all day and all night. This is getting more TV time than man landing on the moon, and when President Kennedy was assassinated in November 1963. Just too strange. I don’t get it. Enough of chasing that rabbit…
I have received many e-mail messages about the new polygon warning system from the National Weather Service… I will write more about that later; I guess we have known about it so long we forget that this is fresh news for many people. Bottom line is that it is a good thing in my opinion; instead of warning an entire county, now you just warn people in the path of a dangerous storm or a tornado. Pretty much the same kind of thing we have been doing in the TV business for years… with today’s technology you can be pretty specific about a storm location (but, on the other hand, you can’t identify a tornado down to a city block like many stations claim…. radar doesn’t detect tornadoes anyway, just the mesoscale rotation several thousand feet off the ground within the radar beam!)
J.B. Elliott and I interviewed Jim Stefkovich, Meteorologist In Charge of the National Weather Service in Birmingham this afternoon on the subject… we will air the interview on next week’s WeatherBrains podcast…
WATCHING FOR JERRY: Our weekend weather will all depend on the development and track of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. The 12Z models continue the idea of a central Gulf coast tropical storm/hurricane threat for the weekend. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for model output and all of the graphics that go with this discussion.
The best blend of models suggests this thing is headed in the general direction of New Orleans at a very bad angle for the city. The 12Z GFDL ramps Jerry up to hurricane strength by the time it reaches Southeast Louisiana; rapid deepening is very possible; we saw that with Humberto last week as it approached the Upper Texas coast. If the GFDL is correct (and the GFS, to some degree), that might really be a significant test for the levee system in New Orleans
We should note we have model outliers, as you might expect… the European takes the system toward the Texas coast, while the BAM set aims the thing toward Southwest Alabama. The NAM also hints of a landfall closer to Gulf Shores.
We really don’t like to get too specific this early in the game… you really need to have an organized system on the board for 12 to 24 hours before you have a high confidence level in a forecast… right now the system does not have its act together. It should be much better organized by Friday over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Everyone from Corpus Christi to Cedar Key, including the Alabama coast, will need to pay close attention to the development of this tropical system in coming days, and be ready for some really quick action if needed.
THE ALABAMA STORY: Looks like wind and rain will be an issue for the Alabama coast Friday through Sunday… the GFS keeps the moisture primarily over the southern half of the state on Friday and Saturday, while the NAM moisture field is more to the north. We will mention a chance of showers on Saturday for areas mainly south of Birmingham, and bring in the chance of showers statewide on Sunday as moisture levels continue improve.
There will also be a chance of showers and storms on Monday and Tuesday of next week as deep moisture lingers over the state. Needless to say, all of this could change as our tropical system unfolds the south.
INGRID STILL ALIVE: Wow… convection continues to blow up around former Tropical Storm Ingrid north of the Leeward Islands. Looks like it is trying to make a comeback.
LONG RANGE: Hey… check out the video and see what the 12Z GFS looks like around October 5. That would suggest a good chance of 40s, and maybe mid to upper 30s for the colder valleys if the model is correct. But, that is pure voodoo and the trough might disappear on the next run.
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The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
