From the 7:00 p.m. (CDT) Advisory from the National Hurricane Center, here are some of the most important items.
LOCATION
The center was near latitude 14.5N, longitude 80.2W. That translates to about 205 miles east of Cabo Gracias a Dios, which is on the Nicarauga/Honduras border.
MOVEMENT
Felix is moving west about 18 mph. This is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On this track, the center of Felix will be near the coasts of extreme NE Nicarauga and Eastern Honduras early Tuesday morning.
WINDS/PRESSURE
Highest sustained winds are near 135 mph, which is no change from the last advisory. There are higher gusts. Felix is a Category 4 and is expected to remain a major hurricane (at least a Category 3) until it makes landfall. There is a possibility that he will grow stronger again before landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend out up to 30 miles, so he is a relatively small hurricane. The estimated lowest pressure at the center was 953mb or 28.14 inches
RAIN/STORM SURGE
Surge flooding in excess of 18 feet above normal tide levels is possible in areas of onshore winds near the center of the hurricane. There will be large and dangerous battering waves. That alone can cause a lot of damage. Felix is expected to dump 5 to 8 inches of rain across North Honduras and NE Nicarauga with isolated amounts up to 12 inches. Obviously, this could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
TRACK FORECAST
The official NHC track forecast shows little or no change. The center of the hurricane should track across the north part of Honduras and North Guatemala, possibly including the very south edge of Belize. It will be Wednesday before it reaches Guatemala and then into Mexico. At some point Thursday, he will likely be downgraded to a tropical depression. The actual center of the track forecast brings the center to the very edge of the southernmost part of the Bay of Campeche. By Saturday afternoon, what is left of the depression, should be about 100 miles west of the gulf coast of Mexico. This is several hundred miles south of the south tip of Texas. It is normal with all hurricane tracking charts to flare out toward the end in the so-called “cone of concern.” That tells us there can be big errors several days down the road. Indeed, the cone of concern by Saturday extends all the way from about 50 miles south of Brownsville, Texas to about 100 miles off the Pacific Coast of Southern Mexico.
