Or fickle forecasting models…
The uncertainty factor has crept back into the forecast process thanks to a wide spread in the model output this afternoon. The morning GFS picked up on it, not as dramatically as some of the other models, but did shift back to the west. The afternoon NAM is much further west, indicating Fay will move toward the Florida Panhandle near Pensacola or Destin Thursday morning.
FAST FACTS 4 p.m.
LOCATION: 21.0N 82.0W or 270 miles SSE of Key West
MOVEMENT: WNW 15
MAX WINDS: 50 mph
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 mb
HURRICANE WATCHES have been extended northward to Tarpon Springs along the west coast of Florida.
OFFICIAL TRACK
Don’t pay attention to the skinny black line, we always say. That skinny black line has been shifted westward a bit by the forecasters at the NHC. The cone of uncertainty covers anywhere from Destin, Florida to Immokalee, Florida in the Everglades…
INTENSITY
Fay remains disorganized, but it is over very warm water and intensification is expected. Fay will likely be a strong tropical storm as it passes Key West late Monday afternoon and become a hurricane a short time later. It could reach category two intensity, depending on the amount of time it spends over the water.
THREAT TO ALABAMA COAST?
The chance still appears to be small, but has increased a bit. We just don’t know what is going to happen. The future track is dependent on developments in the atmosphere that are changing before our very eyes. Certainly, folks with interests along the Gulf Coast from Alabama to the Florida Keys have to pay attention to the latest on Fay.
