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It’s hard to find a better Fall day than we will see today – a cool start, lots of fine sunshine, highs climbing to around 70! Fall days just don’t get much better than this! And we’ll start the work week with another great day, though an easterly flow could introduce some clouds from the east. I expect to see clouds increasing as the surface high slides off to the east along with a strong short wave zipping through the upper atmosphere which will bring rain and potentially thunderstorms to Central Alabama on Tuesday, primarily from afternoon through the evening.
There are signs for some potentially severe weather, too, however, the instability is not strong. So with good shear forecast, we’ll need to watch how the instability evolves, so be sure to keep up-to-date on the forecast.
That front should be clear of our area on Wednesday with another great day. From mid-week to the weekend the confidence is not especially good with the timing of the next system. Since yesterday, the GFS has developed a very strong ridge over Florida which holds tough. This will likely slow down the next system bringing around round of rain and storms Friday night into Saturday. But timing of that next system may have to be adjusted since we’ve seen the development of the strong ridge.
Rainfall could amount to 2 inches across much of Central Alabama between the two systems on Tuesday and again Friday-ish. That will certainly add substantially to our rainfall totals bringing this October well into the top ten wettest Octobers on record for Central Alabama.
Nothing in the Atlantic or the Pacific tropically at this time.
The GFS continues to foresee a very progressive pattern with another couple of troughs impacting us over the second week. One of those appears likely to produce a severe weather setup – we are approaching our secondary severe weather season, too – but that is well into voodoo country so something interesting to watch for the moment.
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Great day today, so I hope you will have a chance to enjoy the great Fall weather. Chilly here in Chicago as I continue to work with my daughter to get things moved and resettled. We took some time yesterday to travel out of the city a ways to visit the Ikea store! Wow, talk about overload from seeing all of that furniture – what a store!! I’m even bringing something back with me. Have a great day, and Godspeed.
-Brian-
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