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VERY COMFORTABLE FOR WINTER: With a sunny sky, we figure temperatures will rise into the mid 60s today, about 10 degrees above average values for mid-February in Alabama. The humidity will be low, and the wind will be relatively light (compared to yesterday!).
MORE QUICK CHANGES: A fast flow in the upper air across the southern U.S. will make for a rather challenging forecast for the next seven days; trying to time out each impulse will be hard to do. Clouds will return tomorrow, and it seems like the GFS is a little slower with the rain; it now appears the best chance of rain will come from around 6:00 p.m. tomorrow through 9:00 a.m. Saturday, based on the 06Z run. If this trend keeps up, we will need to adjust the forecast to keep the daytime mostly dry tomorrow (and adjust afternoon highs upward, toward 70 degrees), with periods of rain tomorrow night, ending by mid-morning Saturday. Seems like there will be sufficient instability for a few thunderstorms over South Alabama, but severe weather is not expected to be an issue. Some sunshine should break through the clouds Saturday afternoon. The high Saturday will be in the 60s.
SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK: A weak impulse shows up Sunday, and the 06Z GFS tries to squeeze out a little light rain around here. At this point our forecast is dry, but if this continues in the 12Z run we might consider adding some risk of a few rain drops on Sunday. Temperatures should be a little cooler Sunday with a high in the upper 50s.
Monday still looks dry, but yet another system rolls in here Tuesday. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you can see the 06Z GFS hints the main event will come Tuesday night, and it also hints at strong thunderstorms with the surface low to the north and warm, moist, unstable air in place. We monitor that in coming days.
VOODOO COUNTRY: Very cold air will be building up over the western part of Canada again later in the month; the GFS shows a surface high approaching 1060 mb up over the Yukon, so at some point you know our weather will turn cold again. And, if this active southern stream keeps up who knows. The model continues to hint of some Tennessee Valley snow risk around the 24th, but we all know about voodoo land.
STORM ALERT 2009: We will be in Jasper tonight at the CHS building downtown at 7:00 for our annual severe weather tour. Come early for a good seat and meet the entire ABC 33/40 weather team! We always have great crowds in Jasper and we look forward to seeing you there.
TWITTER: Don’t forget, you can follow our news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. And, my personal Twitter feed is here if you want to keep up with my adventures in life. Twitter is a short messaging service you can receive via the web, cell phone, or IM.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
Today I will be speaking to a group of Baptist Health System retirees at Trinity Medical Center… I should have time to crank out another Weather Xtreme video before leaving for Storm Alert 2009 in Jasper. Enjoy the day!
