An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
Let me say up front you might want to take the time in coming days to watch the Weather Xtreme video… it offers all of the graphics that go along with this discussion, and can offer more insight into this very active pattern.
RIGHT NOW: Rain, light to moderate, covers much of Alabama this morning as our long duration rain event begins. While the SPC slight risk does poke into West Alabama, I really don’t expect any serious severe weather problems today or tonight as the better dynamics initially are lifting well to the north, and instability values are marginal. Also, flooding won’t be a problem today since the soil is not saturated yet. Just be aware that rain and thunderstorms are likely today with our surface boundary that will be settling in here and stalling out.
TOMORROW: The GFS hints at temporary drying over North Alabama by the midday hours, with some sunshine likely tomorrow afternoon. This will make the atmosphere rather unstable, and the idea of a few severe storms is on the table for tomorrow night into early Friday morning. This won’t be the biggest threat, but it is certainly significant and something to watch. SPC has much of Alabama in a slight risk of severe weather for tomorrow night. As the new storms form, the ground will become saturated, and the concern for flash flooding will grow. A flash flood watch will be required for much of Alabama soon (flash flood watches are already up for Mississippi and Georgia).
FRIDAY/SATURDAY: There is genuine concern over the possibility of a major outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes across the Deep South. A powerful upper trough will spin up a rapidly deepening surface low, running from near Tyler, Texas to Paducah, Kentucky. This will pull our old front northward as a warm front, and showers and storms Friday morning will diminish by midday, opening a window for a few hours of sunshine Friday afternoon. If this happens, it will push temperatures into the low 80s, and create a very unstable atmosphere that will be a power keg (surface based CAPE values greater than 2,000 j/kg). We note the GFS shows the EHI over 2.0, and with screaming wind fields it sure looks like trouble.
At this time, it seems like the greatest window for severe storms and tornadoes in Alabama will come from about 6:00 p.m. Friday until 6:00 a.m. Saturday. We are very early in the game, and this might change, but everybody in Alabama will need to be close to a good source of weather information during this event, especially Friday night into the pre-dawn hours Saturday. It is likely that SPC will have to use a moderate or high risk.
REST OF THE WEEKEND: The dry slot moves into Alabama during the day Saturday; the 00Z GFS is faster with our system, and showers all of the storms out of here by midday. Sunday will be mostly sunny but cooler with a high around 60. We will be close to 40 by daybreak Monday, and some scattered light frost will be possible across the colder valleys, but a major freeze/frost threat doesn’t look likely at this point.
NEXT WEEK: The 00Z GFS now shows another upper trough with a cold front passing through here Tuesday morning with a band of showers and storms. We won’t jump on this just yet, but if the 12Z shows this we will need to introduce a chance of rain into the forecast for late Monday night or Tuesday.
LONG RANGE: Very active weather continues well into April… see the Weather Xtreme video for the latest look from the GFS. I still think there is a decent risk of at least one more freeze here as well.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Scroll down for the notes on this week’s new episode recorded last night.
SOUTHEAST SEVERE STORMS SYMPOSIUM CANCELLED: Due to the major severe weather threat, the annual Southeast Severe Storms Symposium at Mississippi State scheduled for Friday and Saturday has been cancelled. Read more here.
TWITTER: Don’t forget, you can follow our news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. And, my personal Twitter feed is here if you want to keep up with my adventures in life. Twitter is a short messaging service you can receive via the web, cell phone, or IM.
SPECIAL ABC 33/40 NOAA WEATHER RADIO OFFER: You can purchase the WR-100 Midland NOAA Weather Radio, the best selling model in the nation, at any Publix or Handy TV location in this part of Alabama for only $29.95. These receivers have the new digital technology that allows you to choose the counties for which the alarm sounds. Every Alabama home and business needs one!
I have weather programs today at Gardendale’s First Baptist Church, and Gwin Elementary in Hoover. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted here by 3:30 this afternoon; J.B. will keep you updated on ongoing weather developments. Enjoy the day!
